Comprehensive coverage of ASX 200 companies with institutional-grade analysis.
Australia's #1 insurance broker aggregator (16% share, 402 members) trades 8% below $6.56 fair value despite fortress financials (18.7% ROIC, 127% FCF conversion). Premium cycle trough (1-2% pricing) normalises FY27-28 driving $125m revenue per 1% uplift.
View noteFair value $6.00 vs current $15.53 (-61%). Australian monopoly faces IPART repricing (2H26), interoperability risk (40% probability 2nd operator FY27-28), and UK execution binary (viability threshold 2+ lenders by FY26).
View noteFair value $25.50 vs current $43.67 (-41.6%). Mature banking franchise at cost of equity equilibrium offering 7.2% yield (10-11% franked) with limited capital appreciation. ROE 11.4% declining to 10.5% terminal as competitive intensity constrains returns.
View noteAmazon trades at USD $173 vs fair value USD $88 (-49% overvalued). AWS 37% margins face hyperscaler compression, USD $120B AI capex unproven. Terminal value 65.8% creates asymmetric risk. Bear case -77%.
View noteWestpac trades 40% above $23.71 fair value despite operational deterioration. Cost-to-income rising to 53% (vs CBA's 43%) whilst UNITE delivers zero efficiency gains. Credit at unsustainable 5bps trough. Expected returns -11.2% annually. Avoid.
View noteHealthcare technology leader with 28.5% market share and 94.3% device connectivity. Fair value $187.65 vs current $128 (47% upside). EBITDA margins peak 37.5% FY26 before compression to 30.7% terminal. Medicare risk 85% probability. Quality score 7.6/10.
View noteAVOID. Fair value $8.38 vs current $9.16 (-9% downside). Challenger dominates 60% annuity share with 67.7% EBITDA margins, but faces compression to 58% as banks enter FY27. ROIC 12.5% declining to 10.0% vs 14.0% WACC. Quality 7.33/10, wide moat narrowing 6-8 years.
View noteCSL trades at $220.29 vs fair value $136.28 (62% premium). Strong plasma oligopoly moat (7.7/10 quality) executing $500M transformation targeting 34% EBITDA margins by FY28. Revenue growth 5.6% CAGR, but current valuation appears to fully reflect optimistic scenarios with limited margin of safety.
View noteTechnology-driven consumer lending platform with superior credit quality (807 vs peer 650-780) but faces fundamental capital structure challenges. Fair value $0.25 vs current $3.50 implies -93% return. Negative FCF requires perpetual dilution.
View noteTitomic trades at 620% premium to A$0.038 fair value despite -232% EBITDA margins. High-growth defence tech with 5-7 year patent moat faces binary execution risk on facility scaling and Tier-1 conversions. Venture capital-style bet requiring 3-5 year horizon.
View noteChallenging turnaround play with fair value -$0.022 vs current $0.050. Persistent losses, 5% churn, narrow moat. High risk, negative outlook.
View noteHeartland Group Holdings: Fair value $2.24 vs current $0.955 (+136% upside). Specialist banking transformation with reverse mortgage dominance, ADI deposit advantages, demographic tailwinds. Credit cycle recovery catalyst.
View noteCredit Clear trades at $0.27 vs fair value $0.45 (67% upside), recently profitable with 15.8% EBITDA margin, 95% Tier-1 retention, technology moat 5-7 years
View noteFair value $2.65 with 18.6% ROIC premium to sector. Victorian concentration risk offset by utility acquisitions and renewables positioning.
View noteGlobal cochlear implant leader (62% share) with Nexa innovation and demographic tailwinds, though current $309 price implies -27% downside to $209 fair value. ROIC 24% vs WACC 8%, FY26 guidance 11-17% profit growth.
View noteTrading at 48% discount to peers despite 31.1% margins and 96% franchise retention. Fair value $3.62 vs current $1.83 implies 98% upside potential.
View noteGenesis Energy (NZX:GNE) fair value NZ$3.61 vs current AUD$2.07 (NZ$2.18), 66% upside. Quality score 8.2/10, wide moat, strong execution. ROIC 8.5%, 12.8% EBITDA margin, 6.6% yield.
View noteBrambles (BXB) trades at $23.23 with fair value US$11.53, implying 30% downside. Strong 22% EBITDA margins and 95% retention offset by elevated valuation at 17.0x P/E versus 15.5x peers.
View noteAttractive rating with fair value $4.61 vs current $4.505. Strong operational momentum with 3.1% FUMA growth to $340.5bn and positive $1.0bn net inflows. Trading at 42% discount to peers (7.4x vs 12.8x EV/EBITDA) despite comparable quality.
View noteASX trades at $58.42 vs fair value $70.15 (+20% upside). Dominant market position with 61% EBITDA margins, 13.8% ROIC. Near-term regulatory and execution risks offset by structural moat and superannuation tailwinds.
View noteKaroon Energy: Fair value A$6.00 vs current A$1.47 (+308% upside). Mid-tier offshore producer with 63.4% EBITDA margins, 54MMboe 2P reserves, facing near-term operational challenges creating valuation dislocation.
View noteMA Financial trades at $9.19 versus $11.41 fair value (24% upside). Strong execution with MA Money profitability inflection, 74% recurring revenue, 34% AUM growth. ROIC 19.0% vs WACC 9.2%. Quality score 7.8/10.
View noteRegis Healthcare acquiring aggressively at 7.5x EBITDA with $99m cash, 74 homes, $90m Q1 RAD inflows signal recovery, but valuation incomplete—integration execution critical.
View noteNorthern Star Resources: Australia's #2 gold producer trading at 102% premium to A$12.60 fair value. Operational excellence meets valuation excess with 51% downside risk.
View noteVista Group (VGL) trades at $2.52 AUD versus $2.09 USD fair value, offering 10.7% upside. Dominant 46% market share, 90% recurring revenue, cloud transformation driving 13.3% FY25E growth. Medium confidence, 3-5 year horizon.
View noteWoodside trades at $22.70 versus $39.37 fair value (73% upside). World-class 98.3% reliability, Scarborough 86% complete (H2 2026), Williams partnership validates Louisiana LNG. EBITDA margin 70.4%, development phase FCF compression temporary.
View noteSouth32 trades at 18% premium to $2.62 fair value with challenging risk-reward dynamics. ROIC 8.7% trails WACC 10.95%. High terminal dependency creates valuation uncertainty.
View noteBUY rating with $1.51 fair value vs $0.745 current price. Strong 8.1/10 quality score, 35-40% market share, 96% upside potential.
View notePremium wealth platform leader trading at 35% discount to $0.91 fair value, with 15.2% ROIC and 95% recurring revenue model targeting HNW growth.
View noteSpecialist SME bank with 16% loan growth and NPS +53, trading at $1.73 vs $1.01 fair value. Strong execution but overvalued at current levels.
View noteHUB24 rated ATTRACTIVE at $110.72 fair value vs $108.83 current price. 15% revenue CAGR, 28% ROIC, 9.0% market share with wide moat.
View noteBUY rating with $0.98 fair value vs $0.485 current price (85% upside). Platform technology across $50bn+ TAM, 16% revenue CAGR, 80% grant success rate.
View noteCleanaway trades at $2.87 vs $2.70 fair value, offering defensive infrastructure exposure with 25% market share, 24% EBITDA margins, and 8-10% expected returns.
View noteUndervalued base metals producer with 232% upside potential. Fair value $0.63 vs current $0.19. Strong EBITDA margins 35.5%, net cash position, targeting 40kt copper equivalent by FY28.
View noteFair value $0.121 vs current $0.225 (47% overvalued). 95% revenue CAGR forecast, 79% customer concentration, 68% failure probability. Speculative growth only.
View noteFair value $0.051 vs current $0.24 implies 79% downside. Strong defence positioning overwhelmed by extreme valuation and persistent cash burn through 2030.
View noteFair value $20.62 vs current $20.90. Corporate Trust moat with 45%+ margins. J O Hambro turnaround critical. Expected 3-year returns 2.5% annually.
View notePure-play counterdrone leader trading at $4.99 vs $2.59 fair value. Strong growth potential undermined by working capital crisis and 85% execution failure probability.
View noteMarket-leading automotive distributor trading at 13% discount during operational transformation. Fair value $4.21 vs current $3.17 implies 33% upside with medium risk profile.
View noteAnalytical equipment manufacturer trading at $2.12 vs $1.21 fair value. Strong Q1 growth but unsustainable 27.6% EBITDA margins face inevitable compression.
View noteFiducian trades at $12.57 vs $11.84 fair value with 52.1% ROIC and 7.2/10 quality score, managing platform transformation amid legacy business decline
View noteHOLD rating with $5.25 fair value vs $8.10 current price. Quality mining operation with validated crisis management and rare earths transformation potential.
View noteIndustrial distribution turnaround with $6.64 fair value vs $0.605 current price. Q1 EBITDA recovery validates $10m cost program. High risk, exceptional upside potential.
View noteAlternative asset manager trading at $2.16 vs $5.60 fair value (159% upside) with record AUM growth and operational excellence validation
View notePure lending specialist with A$0.446 fair value vs A$0.115 current price, 18.5% ROIC, A$35.8M cash, 74% margin of safety
View noteBUY rating with A$1.65 fair value vs A$0.52 current price. Strategic Baowu partnership, 6-10Mt scaling potential, 8.6/10 business quality.
View noteHOLD rating with $4.53 fair value vs $6.43 current price. Strong Q1 operational performance validates management execution but creates 29.5% overvaluation concern requiring exceptional execution for positive returns.
View noteSantos trades 34% below $8.54 fair value at $6.38, with operational resilience validated through crisis management and 25% expected returns from project delivery.
View noteRegional bank transformation trading at 29% discount to $9.31 fair value, with specialist banking margins and digital execution driving value creation through operational leverage.
View noteTreasury Wine Estates faces material execution challenges with fair value $4.68 vs current $6.835, implying -32% overvaluation amid China weakness and operational bandwidth constraints.
View noteTPG Telecom analysis: Partnership-enabled transformation creating competitive advantages. Fair value $11.97 vs current $5.17. Strong financial health, narrow moat, medium risk.
View noteMarket-leading retailer with 35.2% ROIC trading at fair value $67.02, facing e-commerce disruption whilst maintaining exceptional operational efficiency and 25% market share.
View noteREA Group analysis: Fair value $136.24 vs current $240.49 (-43.3%). Dominant 60% market share, 57.9% EBITDA margins face inevitable compression.
View noteStrong Sell rating with fair value $11.26 vs current $30.98 - 83% overvaluation despite solid fundamentals and AZEK synergies
View noteTrading at 79% discount to peers following aggressive restructuring. Fair value $21.11 vs current $15.19 implies 39% upside for turnaround execution.
View noteSELL rating with $1.92 fair value vs $3.24 current price. 41% overvalued despite 147% EBITDA growth as Big Tech disruption threatens market position.
View noteStrong SaaS business with 55% Australia market share trading at 42x EBITDA vs 24x peer median. Fair value NZ$48.58 implies 72% downside from current NZ$174.30.
View noteXiaomi trades at $52.35 vs $42.06 fair value. Strong ecosystem growth offset by execution complexity across smartphones, EVs, and IoT segments.
View noteDominant logistics platform with 99%+ retention trading at extreme 42x P/E. Fair value $12.62 vs $101.96 current price implies 88% downside risk.
View noteWoolworths trades at $28.88 versus $19.39 fair value. Market leader faces margin pressure and execution risks. Quality business at wrong price.
View noteEngineering services leader trading at $14.45 vs $18.72 fair value with 69% sustainable backlog positioning for energy transition opportunities.
View noteEssential infrastructure leader trading near fair value $5.10 with 8.2% EBITDA margins facing inevitable compression. Defensive 3.9% yield offset by ACCC risk and safety concerns.
View noteVEEM trades at $1.25 vs $0.87 fair value with 85% gyro market share, 18.6% revenue CAGR projected, but 30% overvaluation risk.
View noteHOLD rating with fair value $1.77 vs current $2.09. Transformation execution risks outweigh convenience retail opportunity at current premium valuation.
View noteAustralia's #2 retail REIT with fortress assets trading at $2.57 vs $1.82 fair value. Peak 99.5% occupancy faces normalisation. ROIC 4.1% below 9.5% WACC indicates value destruction despite quality portfolio.
View noteIntermediate gold producer trading 60% above fair value of A$0.375 despite strong balance sheet. EBITDA margins face compression from 43.2% to 35%.
View noteHOLD rating with $7.64 fair value vs $8.54 current price. Strong execution but fashion cycle risks mounting.
View noteTyro Payments analysis: Fair value $1.66 vs current $1.20 (38% upside). Health market leader (25% share) expanding into banking and new verticals. CEO transition risk balanced by strong balance sheet.
View noteTuas Limited analysis: Fair value S$6.82 vs current S$6.89. M1 acquisition creates 32% market share with S$103m synergies. Medium-high risk, 13% expected returns.
View noteTrajan Group Holdings trades at $0.76 versus $1.64 fair value, offering 116% upside through operational leverage and innovation commercialisation in analytical instrumentation markets.
View noteAustralia's leading government ERP SaaS provider with 21% ARR growth, 42.3% EBITDA margins, trading at $39.01 versus $53.32 fair value, offering 37% upside through SaaS+ model scaling and UK expansion validation.
View noteTelix Pharmaceuticals analysis: Fair value $17.14 USD vs current $17.50 AUD. High-growth radiopharmaceutical platform with 51.2% revenue growth, therapeutic pipeline worth $2.8bn risk-adjusted value, though execution risks and 8.4x leverage require careful assessment.
View noteHOLD rating with $3.81 fair value vs $4.21 current price. Strong growth prospects offset by integration risks and margin compression pressures.
View noteHOLD rating with $11.59 fair value vs $14.00 current price. Strong infrastructure franchise but elevated leverage and regulatory risks limit upside potential.
View noteSouthern Cross Austereo analysis: BUY rating, $3.15 fair value vs $0.84 current price. Digital transformation progressing with LiSTNR profitability achieved.
View noteAustralia's largest TV broadcaster trades at $0.15 vs fair value $0.45, leveraging AFL rights and 7plus digital growth amid advertising headwinds and global platform competition.
View noteSuper Retail Group trades at $16.21 vs fair value $13.56, facing digital disruption and margin pressure across four-brand specialty retail portfolio with 55% thesis failure probability.
View noteBUY rating with $1.04 fair value vs $0.54 current price. High-risk transformation story with 562% EBITDA growth but execution challenges.
View noteService Stream trades at $2.07 vs $3.09 fair value (49% upside). EBITDA margins expanding to 6.5%, ROIC 13.2%, net cash $74m.
View noteTrading at $1.48 vs $2.61 fair value (76% upside). Transform-UTM private brand validates strategic transformation. 25% market share, 89 NPS, debt-free balance sheet.
View noteHOLD rating with $8.31 fair value. Exceptional 46.2% EBITDA margins face inevitable compression as 74% ROIC attracts competition. Income-focused opportunity only.
View notePre-revenue gold explorer trading at A$0.047 vs A$0.191 fair value. Dual catalysts: systematic exploration across 1,000km² Eastern Goldfields tenure and US$50m arbitration award. High risk, asymmetric upside.
View noteHOLD rating with $1.78 fair value vs $1.99 current price. Strong 80% annuity model offset by margin compression risks and 53% valuation premium to peers.
View noteSpark New Zealand trading at NZ$2.29 vs fair value NZ$3.07, offering 34% upside through transformation execution and defensive infrastructure advantages in dominant market position.
View noteMedical device manufacturer with 35-40% oral appliance market share. Fair value $0.30 vs current $0.70. EBITDA margins compressing, manufacturing constraints binding.
View noteSoul Patts trades at $38.71 vs fair value $45.81, offering 18.4% upside through portfolio evolution and private market access with 122-year dividend track record.
View noteBUY rating with A$4.76 fair value vs A$2.36 current price. Strong balance sheet, operational excellence, 102% upside potential despite commodity volatility.
View noteSpeculative buy with 124% upside to $9.06 fair value. Binary TRL-6 catalyst Q4 2025. Revolutionary laser enrichment technology targeting 8% Western market share.
View noteHOLD rating on Sky Network Television. Fair value NZ$5.68 vs current NZ$2.58 (120% upside). Dominant 80% NZ pay-TV share, 8.5% yield, but 2030 sports rights renewal risk.
View noteElectrical contractor riding data centre wave faces inevitable margin compression. Fair value $1.55 vs current $2.97. EBITDA margins 9.0%, ROIC 84%, but competition emerging.
View noteSonic Healthcare trades at A$28.30 versus A$32.41 fair value, offering 14.5% upside through LADR integration targeting A$130m synergies with 65% achieved.
View noteSHAPE trades at $4.28 vs fair value $3.30. Strong operations (86% Perfect Delivery, 78.6% ROIC) but execution complexity and cycle timing create unfavourable risk-reward.
View noteHOLD rating with $16.19 fair value vs $15.05 current price. Strong operational execution offset by Chinese export dependency and commodity cycle risks.
View noteIndustrial distributor trading 17% below $0.88 fair value with 16.7% ROIC and proven M&A execution across fragmented Australian market.
View noteFair value $23.50 vs current $20.00. EBITDA margins 19.1% compressing to 17.5%. Strong market positions face inevitable competitive convergence. Quality 6.75/10.
View noteMid-tier polymetallic miner with 45% EBITDA margins trading at $15.43 vs $3.82 fair value. Strong operations, challenging valuation at commodity cycle peak.
View noteTrading at $20.86 vs fair value $32.23 (+54.5% upside). EBITDA margins 18.7% vs peers 12%. Property NAV $16.73/share provides downside protection. Medium risk, favourable outlook.
View noteSPECULATIVE BUY rating with $0.91 fair value vs $0.29 current price. 214% upside potential offset by scale disadvantages and execution risks in competitive market.
View noteHOLD rating with $23.21 fair value vs $25.16 current price. Platform Unification complete, targeting 46% EBITDA margins through operational leverage amid employment recovery.
View noteHOLD rating with $2.79 fair value vs $2.57 current price. 5.8% franked yield, 4.5% alpha generation, premium NTA trading.
View note