Speculative BUY. Fair value $0.439 vs current $0.14 (+214% return). FY25: 34% EBITDA growth on 6% revenue (5.7x leverage), 91% cash conversion. 45% AU/60% NZ skydiving share, regulatory moats. Risks: 72.6% terminal dependency, climate volatility, tourism recovery uncertainty.
View noteFair value $17.47 vs current $17.26. Industry-leading 39% EBITDA margins with 31.4% ROIC. UK expansion (3 stores to 32-35 target) provides $5.75/share strategic optionality. Consumer bifurcation: Peter Alexander +6.6%, Smiggle -14.5%.
View noteSEEK commands 70% ANZ market share with platform leverage emerging (67% incremental margins), but trades at $25.15 vs fair value $22.26 (11.5% premium). Revenue growth 12.4% CAGR through employment recovery and Asia expansion, though competitive threats and execution risks warrant caution.
View noteMarket leader trading 25% below fair value ($1.01 vs $0.79) with 67% ROIC, $112m net cash fortress, and HLO bid floor at $0.90. Strategic plan execution risk balanced by exceptional operational efficiency and asymmetric 4.2x reward-to-risk ratio.
View noteFair value $3.06 vs current $5.25 (31% overvalued). Revenue growth 27.7% FY26 decelerating to 2.5% terminal. EBITDA margins compressing from 14.4% to 10.0% as 740bps industry premium proves unsustainable. WorkPac integration (40% failure risk) critical catalyst.
View noteFair value $2.08 vs current $3.28 (58% premium). Exceptional growth (92% revenue, 84% ROIC) fully priced. Competitive response within 18-24 months (75% probability) will compress margins from 9.0% to 7.5%. Expected return 8.5% annually with symmetric risk (1.28:1 ratio).
View noteHelloworld trades at $1.79 vs $5.06 fair value (183% upside). FY26 revenue $238.6m (+23.8%) driven by MTA acquisition. EBITDA margins 32.5% peak. Risk-adjusted return 174% with 86/100 confidence. Key risks: MTA integration, digital disruption, economic sensitivity.
View noteHOLD. Fair value $2.41 vs current $4.78 (98% premium). FY2026 peak $305m revenue (+126%) requires unprecedented 4.7x scale-up. 48% failure probability. Narrow moat eroding. High execution risk.
View noteTechnology leader with 85-90% market share trades at $1.83 vs fair value $0.93 (48% overvalued). Exceptional revenue quality (96% recurring, 100% retention) offset by permanent negative FCF and ROIC 3.8% vs WACC 12%. Quality 6.8/10, avoid.
View notePre-revenue Phase 1 biotech at AUD 3.28 vs fair value AUD 0.86 (281% premium). 76% probability of suboptimal outcomes. 17-month cash runway vs 21-month trial needs forces dilutive raise. High-risk binary clinical outcomes.
View noteFair Value $1.15 (NZD) vs market ~$0.88 implies +31% upside. EBITDAFI inflection to 3.1% (FY25) targeting 12% by FY29-30 via operating leverage. B4B partnership (60% revenue) through 2029 provides growth visibility but creates renewal risk. Quality 5.65/10, narrow moat.
View notePre-commercial titanium manufacturer with breakthrough HAMR technology. Fair value $0.95 USD vs current $0.35 implies 171% upside (50% Base case probability). High execution risk offset by $60M+ government backing and 200 tpa commercial validation. 18-24 month horizon.
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