Speculative BUY. Fair value $0.439 vs current $0.14 (+214% return). FY25: 34% EBITDA growth on 6% revenue (5.7x leverage), 91% cash conversion. 45% AU/60% NZ skydiving share, regulatory moats. Risks: 72.6% terminal dependency, climate volatility, tourism recovery uncertainty.
View noteFair value $17.47 vs current $17.26. Industry-leading 39% EBITDA margins with 31.4% ROIC. UK expansion (3 stores to 32-35 target) provides $5.75/share strategic optionality. Consumer bifurcation: Peter Alexander +6.6%, Smiggle -14.5%.
View noteSEEK commands 70% ANZ market share with platform leverage emerging (67% incremental margins), but trades at $25.15 vs fair value $22.26 (11.5% premium). Revenue growth 12.4% CAGR through employment recovery and Asia expansion, though competitive threats and execution risks warrant caution.
View noteMarket leader trading 25% below fair value ($1.01 vs $0.79) with 67% ROIC, $112m net cash fortress, and HLO bid floor at $0.90. Strategic plan execution risk balanced by exceptional operational efficiency and asymmetric 4.2x reward-to-risk ratio.
View noteFair value $2.08 vs current $3.28 (58% premium). Exceptional growth (92% revenue, 84% ROIC) fully priced. Competitive response within 18-24 months (75% probability) will compress margins from 9.0% to 7.5%. Expected return 8.5% annually with symmetric risk (1.28:1 ratio).
View noteHelloworld trades at $1.79 vs $5.06 fair value (183% upside). FY26 revenue $238.6m (+23.8%) driven by MTA acquisition. EBITDA margins 32.5% peak. Risk-adjusted return 174% with 86/100 confidence. Key risks: MTA integration, digital disruption, economic sensitivity.
View noteFair value $6.07 vs current $2.86 (112% upside). Mid-tier quality (5.8/10) with narrow moat (4-6 years). EBITDA margins compressing 27.5% to 22.8% terminal. ROIC 15.6% declining to 10.5% as competitive equilibrium eliminates excess returns. Suitable for value investors seeking stable cash flows.
View noteFair Value $1.15 (NZD) vs market ~$0.88 implies +31% upside. EBITDAFI inflection to 3.1% (FY25) targeting 12% by FY29-30 via operating leverage. B4B partnership (60% revenue) through 2029 provides growth visibility but creates renewal risk. Quality 5.65/10, narrow moat.
View noteElders (ELD) trades at $6.97 vs fair value $2.56 (172% premium). Delta acquisition ($475m) tests management at 4-5x scale. EBITDA margin 4.7%, targeting 4.6% peak before 4.2% terminal compression. Bear case 25% probability.
View noteFair value $6.48 vs current $5.35 (21% upside). Recently profitable SaaS (96% retention, 81% gross margin) at M&A integration inflection. 65% Base case: 20.9% EBITDA peak FY26. 35% Bear/Severe: integration delays compress to 13-14%. 2.4:1 upside/downside asymmetry.
View noteFair value $2.69 vs current $1.22 (89% upside). Technology platform drives 23.9% cost-to-income ratio vs peers 60%+. ROIC 32.5% with NAB partnership scaling. Credit normalization from 94bps to 130bps key risk. 2-3 year horizon.
View noteBUY rating with $36.28 fair value (59% upside from $22.81). Cyclical steel recovery play at 8.9% EBITDA margin trough vs 11.1% historical average. Probability-weighted scenarios show 65% Base/Bull outcomes ($44-58) vs 35% Bear/Severe risk ($18-30). 18-24mo horizon.
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