Fair value $127.82 vs current $217.30 (-41% overvalued). Dominant 60% market share with 58% EBITDA margins faces inevitable compression to 49% as competition intensifies and premium products saturate at 79%. Q1 FY26 negative jaws validate forecast.
View noteXero (XRO) trades $154.79 vs fair value $132.25 (14.6% premium). Quality SaaS (94% recurring, 1.09% churn, Rule of 40: 44.5%) with binary Melio risk. 30% integration failure probability, UK MTD catalyst Apr 2026. Attractive <$125, overvalued current.
View noteFair value $4.46 vs current $5.10 (12% overvalued). Quality consolidator (7.9/10) with 90% integration success, 11.1% revenue CAGR, 102% cash conversion. Demographic certainty (2.8% death volume growth through 2035) offset by acquisition pipeline maturation and 12% premium pricing.
View noteOrica at $21.72 vs fair value $17.47 (24% premium). Market leader (27% share) with wide moat from WebGen technology and scale advantages. ROIC 13.8% vs WACC 9.7%. Digital Solutions accelerating 34% CAGR. Mid-cycle positioning provides 24-36 month runway before downturn.
View noteFair value $9.73 vs current $12.79 (24% downside). Regional bank mid-transformation with 5.9% revenue CAGR, ROE improving 7.34%→9.45% by FY30. Up platform (1.2m customers, +55.2 NPS) provides growth optionality. 4.9% yield, 50% transformation execution risk.
View note$42.42 fair value (-35% vs current). Aristocrat's 43% Gaming Ops share and 41.7% EBITDA margin (570bp above 10-yr avg) face inevitable compression as ROIC 19.2% invites competitive response. NeoGames integration critical.
View noteAustralia's largest bank trades 49% above fair value ($168 vs $113) as markets price unsustainable peak metrics. NIM compressing 2.08%→1.90%, credit normalising 7bp→18bp, technology execution binary. Quality franchise (7.75/10) but valuation stretched.
View noteFair value $24.00 vs current $36.79 (53% overvalued). ROTE 10.5% trails peers 12.5%. New CEO transformation requires near-flawless execution against 50-75% historical achievement rate. Credit normalization and NIM compression create sector-wide headwinds.
View noteFair value $106.70 vs current $229.00 (-51%). EBITDA margins face 410bps compression. CGM at cyclical peak, MAM fees unsustainable. 65% failure probability across margin/commodity/fee risks. 0.28:1 risk-reward unsuitable.
View noteFair value $6.00 vs current $15.53 (-61%). Australian monopoly faces IPART repricing (2H26), interoperability risk (40% probability 2nd operator FY27-28), and UK execution binary (viability threshold 2+ lenders by FY26).
View noteFair value $25.50 vs current $43.67 (-41.6%). Mature banking franchise at cost of equity equilibrium offering 7.2% yield (10-11% franked) with limited capital appreciation. ROE 11.4% declining to 10.5% terminal as competitive intensity constrains returns.
View noteWestpac trades 40% above $23.71 fair value despite operational deterioration. Cost-to-income rising to 53% (vs CBA's 43%) whilst UNITE delivers zero efficiency gains. Credit at unsustainable 5bps trough. Expected returns -11.2% annually. Avoid.
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