You have seen the free research. This is what the full system does.
Full valuations, a live-tracked model portfolio, and an AI analyst trained on all of it.
The Cost of Getting It Wrong
Bad research does not announce itself. It arrives packaged in professional layouts, confident language, and consensus-aligned thinking. The cost is not the subscription fee. It is the capital you deploy on the back of analysis that was never rigorous enough to trust.
What the street recommended
Bloomberg's Analyst Recommendations screen for CSL. Green bars are Buy ratings. When sell ratings existed, the consensus target tracked the actual price. Once they vanished, the target drifted far above reality while the stock dropped 54%.
Zero sell ratings across 20+ analysts. The consensus target sat above A$300 while the stock traded below A$110. No one on the street flagged the downside.
What our framework identified
Four coverage updates over nine months. Fair value consistently between A$110 and A$143. The rating only shifted to Attractive after the stock fell below our valuation range.
CSL is not the only example.
Each of these was flagged as overvalued by our framework while the street maintained Buy ratings.
| Ticker | Signal | Date | Price Then | Price Now | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTC | Strong Sell | Oct 2025 | $88.30 | $33.43 | -62.1% |
| PME | Sell | Nov 2025 | $263 | $156.38 | -40.5% |
| ZIP | Sell | Oct 2025 | $4.72 | $2.07 | -56.1% |
| XRO | Sell | Oct 2025 | $157.69 | $57.85 | -63.3% |
One bad call is recoverable. A pattern of acting on conflicted or shallow research compounds into permanent capital impairment. The cost of wrong information is always higher than the cost of better information.
Model Portfolio Performance
Top 15 long ideas, conviction-weighted (Half-Kelly). 14 October 2025 to 2 October 2026. Benchmark: S&P/ASX 200 (-2.4%).
How the Record Is Built
| Phase | Period | Return | ASX 200 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long book, October signals | 14 Oct 2025 – 2 Mar 2026 | +13.0% | +3.4% |
| Long book, February signals | 2 Mar – 10 Apr 2026 | +5.2% | -2.6% |
| CORE model portfolio (live) | 10 Apr – 2 Oct 2026 | +3.6% | -3.1% |
| March 2026 selloff (market -7.8%) | whole month | +3.6% | -7.8% |
One research process, re-tested every reporting season. From 10 April 2026 the record is the live CORE model portfolio; the earlier legs are the long book of the same signals, linked. It has outperformed in rising markets and in March's selloff alike.
Banked Winners (CORE, closed)
| Ticker | Realised return |
|---|---|
| AMP | +55% |
| CSL | +48% |
| TWE | +36% |
| RMS | +31% |
| SDF | +19% |
Banked Misses (CORE, closed)
| Ticker | Realised return |
|---|---|
| LYC | -19% |
| WOR | -17% |
| AGL | -7% |
Best Buy Calls — February to April 2026 Research Season
| Ticker | Call date | Price then | Our fair value | Price now | Call return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DGT | 12 Mar 2026 | $1.75 | $4.13 | $2.47 | +41.1% |
| RWC | 12 Mar 2026 | $2.92 | $4.07 | $4.74 | +62.3% |
| SDF | 15 Apr 2026 | $4.18 | $5.99 | $5.77 | +38.0% |
| WEB | 12 Mar 2026 | $2.75 | $6.36 | $3.39 | +23.3% |
| APA | 23 Feb 2026 | $8.86 | $14.37 | $10.67 | +20.4% |
Best Sell Calls — Same Season
| Ticker | Call date | Price then | Our fair value | Price now | Decline captured |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DRO | 27 Feb 2026 | $3.62 | $1.24 | $1.82 | +49.6% |
| LTR | 15 Apr 2026 | $1.90 | $0.35 | $0.80 | +58.2% |
| IPX | 15 Apr 2026 | $4.73 | $0.37 | $2.40 | +49.3% |
| SLX | 27 Feb 2026 | $6.90 | $1.59 | $4.17 | +39.6% |
| HUB | 22 Feb 2026 | $91.08 | $42.23 | $65.01 | +28.6% |
The five best outcomes on each side from the February-April 2026 research season, using each company's latest valuation from that season, marked at the 2 October 2026 close (dividend-adjusted). SDF received a takeover bid within eight weeks of our A$5.99 valuation. Selection shows the best calls; across the season's 25 largest claimed-upside ideas, 15 rose (average move +7.2%), and of the 25 largest claimed-downside ideas, 11 fell (average -1.1%). The misses are in the tables above.
Ratings and positions are point-in-time. A company can be a sell at one price and a long at a lower one.
All figures are model portfolio figures, gross of transaction costs and fees; net returns will be lower. Returns are computed from an indexed daily NAV, not actual trading accounts. From 10 April 2026 the record is the live CORE model portfolio (monthly review); from 14 October 2025 to 10 April 2026 it is the long book of the same research signals run in model form (linked record; initial sizing inverse-volatility, conviction-weighted thereafter). The record spans eleven and a half months. The selection universe was the ASX 100 to August 2026 and the ASX 200 from September 2026, defined as of March 2026 constituents. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
What Intelligence Unlocks
Full Valuations & Forward Estimates
Complete intrinsic valuations with scenario-weighted probability analysis, forward earnings estimates, and explicit price targets for every company in coverage.
Scenario Analysis
Bull, base, and bear cases with explicit assumptions and probability weightings. Know what drives the upside and what triggers the downside before you commit capital.
Confidence Scoring
Every valuation carries a confidence assessment reflecting data quality, model reliability, and sector volatility. You always know how much weight to place on the output.
Updated Analysis & Commentary
Continuous coverage updates with revised outlooks, earnings commentary, and market positioning context as new data emerges each reporting season.
Meet Alfie
Alfie is an AI research assistant built into the Alpha Insights portal. It draws from the full depth of every report we publish, using the same proprietary data the framework produces.
Ask about any company in our coverage. Get a valuation summary, understand the key drivers, or compare across sectors. Alfie does not generate generic AI summaries. It works from the same analytical foundation that drives the platform.
- Ask about any of the 280+ ASX companies in coverage
- Valuation breakdowns, key risks, and sector context on demand
- Generates custom research briefs sent directly to your inbox
- Built on proprietary Alpha Insights data, not public information summaries
One Plan, Everything Included
Investors who want the full system rather than single reports: valuations on every company we cover, portfolio-level positioning, strategy briefings, and an AI research assistant trained on all of it.
- Full research reports with valuations and forward estimates
- Coverage across 280+ ASX companies, updated as they report
- Economic intelligence briefings
- Alfie AI research assistant
- Model portfolio access
- Priority coverage requests
- Portfolio strategy briefings
- Market risk signal alerts
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