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The Spectrum Problem: How Tuas's A$1.6 Billion Deal Unravelled in Three Days
IMDA suspended its review of Tuas's S$1.4B M1 acquisition after discovering potential unauthorised spectrum use. The deal is effectively dead with a 21 May long-stop date. Fair value drops 44% to A$2.22 as franchise risk replaces valuation risk.
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Koala's IPO: 64% Gross Margins, a Proven Cash Engine, and a US Market Barely Touched
Koala lists on the ASX at A$3.40, which is 46% below our A$5.56 fair value. A proven AU/JP cash engine funds a US scaling option with less than 0.2% penetration of a A$39B market. Full 7-year forecast included.
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AI's First P&L: Narrative vs Numbers in February 2026
February 2026 was the first reporting season where AI claims appeared in financial results, not just strategy slides. Three companies quantified impact (WTC, PPS, FLT), one showed adoption metrics (NHF), and three offered narrative only (SRV, AD8, SEK).
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The Leaderless Quarter: What 20+ CEO Departures Tell You About Quality
Twenty-plus ASX companies changed CEOs during one reporting season. Crisis departures average 4.8/10 quality, managed transitions 7.2/10. The bedding-in category, where new CEOs have had 6-18 months, offers 18% average upside.
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Why the RBA's Rate Hikes Are Not Working: Five Structural Channels the Models Miss
Alpha Insights identifies five income channels, from inflation-indexed pensions to legislated superannuation drawdowns, that are insulating $4.9 trillion in retiree wealth from the RBA's interest rate tool. Bottom-up evidence from 400+ ASX-listed companies confirms the transmission failure.
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Iran war series - Part 1
Hi all, I've just posted several insights articles into the Insights page. Have
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The Hydrogen Hangover: Energy Tech's Reckoning
The energy transition thesis has fractured. Lithium names are crushed, traditional gas is undervalued, and uranium has attracted a speculative premium mirroring the lithium bubble. Capital is rotating between narratives, not toward value.
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The Dividend Growth Sweet Spot: Rising Payouts Under 65% Coverage
Five ASX companies are growing dividends while keeping payout ratios conservative. The dividend growth trajectory over FY26-28 matters more than the starting yield for investors building income streams.
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The Turnaround Trilogy: Three Companies Betting on a Reset
Three ASX companies are running turnaround stories at very different stages. DMP is fairly priced after four CEO changes. OML offers 80% upside. SXL shows 275% but carries the highest execution risk.
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SaaS Survivors: Which ASX Tech Platforms Earned Their Multiple?
Six ASX tech platforms carry quality scores of 8-9/10 and ROIC from 15% to 250%. Every one trades above fair value. The question is which premiums are earned and which are hope.
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Consumer Discretionary: The Reporting Season Told Two Stories
Consumer discretionary split into winners and losers. Differentiated platforms trade below fair value while legacy retail models carry premiums that assume a recovery not yet visible in the data.