Thoughts on markets, investing, and equity research.
AGL is undervalued while Origin is overvalued. The market discounts AGL's energy transition as value-destroying while pricing Origin's peak cyclical earnings as permanent. Both assessments appear wrong.
Evolution Mining and Northern Star are both competent gold miners trading at extreme premiums. The entire valuation gap comes down to a single disagreement: gold price regime.
CBA trades 55% above fair value at A$171. ANZ trades 46% above at A$40. The best and cheapest Big 4 banks are both overvalued, driven by structural flows rather than fundamentals.
Week 2 of February 2026 reporting season adds 31 companies to our coverage. Eight are trading below fair value, seven at fair value, and sixteen are overvalued. The quality-price divergence is the defining theme.
REA Group and CAR Group both score 7.8/10 with wide moats. REA reports 35.8% ROIC versus CAR at 9%, but CAR carries \.2B of goodwill that distorts the number. Organic ROIC is above 50%.
REA Group (ASX:REA) trades 23% above our A8 fair value while News Corp (ASX:NWS), which owns 61% of REA, trades 21% below our A\8 fair value. Both companies have roughly A billion market caps, but very different risk-reward profiles.
Five ASX companies analysed during the first week of February 2026 reporting season: Jumbo Interactive (77% undervalued), Credit Corp (41% undervalued), News Corp (21% undervalued), CAR Group (approximately fair value), and REA Group (23% overvalued).
Oracle's 2nd quarter results released last night has not de-railed the AI