Australia's Best Bank vs Its Cheapest: Why Both Are Overvalued
CBA trades 55% above fair value at A$171. ANZ trades 46% above at A$40. The best and cheapest Big 4 banks are both overvalued, driven by structural flows rather than fundamentals.
Thoughts on markets, investing, and equity research.
CBA trades 55% above fair value at A$171. ANZ trades 46% above at A$40. The best and cheapest Big 4 banks are both overvalued, driven by structural flows rather than fundamentals.
Week 2 of February 2026 reporting season adds 31 companies to our coverage. Eight are trading below fair value, seven at fair value, and sixteen are overvalued. The quality-price divergence is the defining theme.
REA Group and CAR Group both score 7.8/10 with wide moats. REA reports 35.8% ROIC versus CAR at 9%, but CAR carries \.2B of goodwill that distorts the number. Organic ROIC is above 50%.
REA Group (ASX:REA) trades 23% above our A8 fair value while News Corp (ASX:NWS), which owns 61% of REA, trades 21% below our A\8 fair value. Both companies have roughly A billion market caps, but very different risk-reward profiles.
Five ASX companies analysed during the first week of February 2026 reporting season: Jumbo Interactive (77% undervalued), Credit Corp (41% undervalued), News Corp (21% undervalued), CAR Group (approximately fair value), and REA Group (23% overvalued).
Oracle's 2nd quarter results released last night has not de-railed the AI