Newmont Corporation

The Business

Newmont produces roughly 5.3 million ounces of gold annually from 12 managed mines and a 38.5% stake in Nevada Gold Mines across 12 countries, alongside copper, silver, zinc and lead as by-products. Its scale is unmatched: 118.2 million ounces of proven and probable reserves, roughly twice its nearest listed peer, translating to a 21-year mine life at current production rates. Following the 2023 Newcrest acquisition, the company divested six non-core assets for $3.4 billion, concentrating the portfolio around long-life, lower-cost operations such as Boddington, Cadia, Lihir and the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture with Barrick.

Recent Performance

Gold's surge to a realised price near $4,661/oz in the first half of 2026, against a five-year average closer to $2,665, has driven extraordinary profitability, with EBITDA margins expanding to a forecast 64.7% from 46.4% in FY24. Revenue grew an expected 18.6% this year, building on 21.3% growth in FY25, though most of that increase is price, not volume: gold production has actually declined. The share price has re-rated sharply alongside gold, pushing valuation multiples well above historical norms.

Outlook

Over the next few years, our modelling has revenue easing modestly as production declines from current levels even with gold held flat, rather than forecasting a further price move. EBITDA margins compress modestly from current highs as all-in sustaining costs escalate against a flat gold price assumption. Free cash flow remains strong throughout, but per-share growth increasingly depends on the buyback program shrinking the share count rather than genuine earnings expansion, a distinction that matters for anyone assessing the quality of forward growth.

Key Risks

The dominant risk is gold price mean reversion. Gold has never previously sustained levels above $3,500/oz for more than 18 months, and management's own $2,500/oz assumption for long-term reserve calculations suggests even Newmont does not expect current prices to persist indefinitely. A meaningful pullback in gold would compress earnings sharply given how much of current profitability is price-driven rather than volume-driven. Second, Newmont's all-in sustaining costs already sit highest among senior peers, and further cost inflation from Ghana's fiscal changes, energy prices, and declining ore grades would compress margins further from an already elevated base. Third, the $7.6 billion buyback program has been executed largely near peak gold prices; buybacks are accretive when purchased below intrinsic value and destructive when purchased above it, so the capital allocation decision carries real risk if the current gold price proves temporary.

What to Watch

The thesis-defining event is Newmont's December 2026 annual reserve statement, which will show whether the 8% year-on-year decline in 2P reserves (128.6 to 118.2 million ounces) continues, a result that would validate a finite-life framing over a going-concern assumption of perpetual reserve replacement.

• October 2026 Q3 2026 earnings, Cadia recovery and AISC normalisation — confirms whether costs track back toward full-year guidance after an elevated first half.
• H2 2027 Tanami Expansion 2 commissioning — adds incremental low-cost ounces if delivered on schedule.

Company Description

Newmont operates 12 managed gold mines across the Americas, Australia, Africa and Papua New Guinea and holds a 38.5% stake in the Barrick-operated Nevada Gold Mines joint venture, producing roughly 5.3 million ounces of gold annually as its core product, alongside meaningful by-product revenue from copper, silver, zinc and lead (roughly 15% of total revenue). Its five largest assets, Nevada Gold Mines (a joint venture with Barrick), Boddington in Western Australia, Cadia in New South Wales, Lihir in Papua New Guinea and Peñasquito in Mexico, together account for roughly 45% of group output. The remaining eight mines span Tanami in the Northern Territory, Ahafo South and Ahafo North in Ghana, Yanacocha in Peru, Merian in Suriname, Brucejack and Red Chris in Canada, and Cerro Negro in Argentina. Following the 2023 Newcrest acquisition, Newmont sold six non-core assets for $3.4 billion, concentrating capital on its longest-life, lowest-cost operations.

Where the Growth Is

The clearest forward growth lever is the Tanami Expansion 2 project in the Northern Territory, commissioning in the second half of 2027, alongside Cadia's panel cave developments extending that mine's life beyond 2050. Both add incremental ounces at lower unit costs than the portfolio average. This is genuine capacity growth rather than price-driven expansion, though it only partially offsets natural decline elsewhere: group production still falls over the next three years even with these projects contributing.

Competitive Position

Newmont's primary advantage is scale: its 118.2 million ounce reserve base is roughly double its nearest listed peer, translating into a mine life of around 21 years against typical senior producer lives of 10-15 years. That base is shrinking rather than growing, however: 2P reserves fell 8% year-on-year (128.6 to 118.2 million ounces), and exploration spending of roughly $250 million annually, about 1% of revenue, has maintained rather than expanded it. Jurisdictional diversification across 12 countries limits exposure to any single sovereign event, evidenced by Ghana's recent royalty and tax changes affecting only about 15% of group production. Investment-grade credit and S&P 500 membership provide a lower cost of capital than smaller peers can access. These advantages are durable but not widening: cost inflation is running faster at Newmont than at several peers, and the reserve trend argues against an expanding position.

Management & Capital Discipline

Management has executed a disciplined post-Newcrest rationalisation, completing six divestitures on schedule and raising $3.4 billion, while bringing Ahafo North into commercial production on time and on budget. Capital allocation since has tilted heavily toward shareholder returns: $7.6 billion in buybacks executed largely near peak gold prices, alongside a base dividend of $1.00 per share. One tension worth flagging: management uses a conservative $2,500/oz gold price for long-term reserve calculations, well below the price levels reflected in current cash flow, yet continues to deploy capital aggressively into buybacks priced as though today's gold price persists.

Financial Position

Newmont's balance sheet is a genuine strength: net cash of roughly $3.4 billion, total liquidity near $13 billion, and no debt maturities until 2029. This provides real flexibility to pause buybacks or absorb weaker gold prices without financial stress. Reclamation obligations of $6.9 billion, concentrated at Yanacocha's ongoing water treatment programme, are fully provisioned on the balance sheet, though management has flagged the possibility of future increases. The company is well-positioned to weather a multi-year gold downturn, even if shareholder returns would need to slow.