Emerald Resources NL

The Business

Emerald's entire current output comes from Okvau, a single open-pit mine in Cambodia that produced 100,400 ounces in FY26. Okvau runs on grid power rather than diesel, unusual for a Cambodian mine, and processes ore 15% above nameplate capacity, both of which help explain the industry-leading cost base. Two development projects sit behind it: Dingo Range in Western Australia (1.41 million ounce resource) and Memot back in Cambodia (1.70 million ounces), together designed to turn a single-asset producer into a three-mine, two-country platform.

Recent Performance

Revenue rose 39.7% in FY26 to A$612 million, almost entirely on gold price rather than volume, since production of 100,400 ounces missed the 105,000-120,000 ounce guidance range, the only guidance miss in seven years. The market has since pushed Emerald's trading multiple well above where comparable low-cost gold producers such as Perseus and Capricorn trade, a re-rating driven by gold's surge rather than any change in operating delivery.

Outlook

Revenue is expected to climb further in FY27 before falling back in FY28 as development capital spending peaks during Dingo Range's construction phase, then rebounding as new production ramps up in FY29. EBITDA margins are set to compress from FY26's record level as the group absorbs the overhead of running two mines instead of one, and as our gold price assumptions moderate from current spot levels toward a more conservative long-run level. Earnings per share are expected to follow a similar path: a modest step up, a meaningful dip through the construction-heavy year, then recovery as Dingo Range output arrives.

Key Risks

Gold trades well above its longer-term average, and Emerald carries no hedging, so a reversion toward more historically typical levels would compress margins directly, ounce for ounce, with no contractual buffer to absorb the move. Concentration in a single Cambodian mine adds sovereign and contract-enforcement risk that will not meaningfully diminish until Dingo Range reaches production. Dingo Range's mining contract has already been committed ahead of a published feasibility study, which leaves the project exposed to cost and schedule risk in a construction market where labour is tight and overruns are common.

What to Watch

The thesis-defining event is the Dingo Range definitive feasibility study, due in Q4 CY2026, which will confirm whether the second mine can be built at the costs the market is currently assuming. Central bank gold-buying data over the following 12-18 months will separately determine whether the structural gold thesis embedded in today's share price is validated or unwinds.

• Q4 CY2026 Dingo Range DFS & maiden ore reserve — confirms project economics and cost base, a key swing factor for the shares in either direction.
• Dec 2026 MACA mobilisation to Dingo Range site — confirms construction is tracking to schedule.

Company Description

Emerald Resources is a single-mine gold producer transitioning to a three-mine platform across two countries. Okvau, an open-pit mine in north-eastern Cambodia, currently supplies 100% of production and generated the bulk of FY26's A$612 million revenue. Behind it sit two development projects: Dingo Range in Western Australia, holding a 1.41 million ounce resource and fully permitted, with a A$562.5 million mining contract already awarded to MACA; and Memot, a second Cambodian project with a 1.70 million ounce resource, still awaiting its feasibility study. Combined group resources stand at 3.93 million ounces. There is no processing or downstream business: Emerald mines and sells gold doré, priced entirely off the spot market.

Where the Growth Is

Dingo Range and Memot currently contribute nothing to production, with Okvau responsible for all 100,400 ounces produced in FY26. That is set to change: group production is expected to roughly triple to 250,000-350,000 ounces by FY31 as both projects come online, Dingo Range from around FY29 and Memot from FY31. Successful commissioning of both, at the costs management is targeting, is also the only path to offsetting Okvau's roughly five-year remaining mine life at current reserves, which makes execution on the pipeline a matter of replacing depleting production rather than pure expansion.

Competitive Position

Emerald's advantage is cost, not scale. All-in sustaining costs of US$972 an ounce sit at the low end of the global industry, and the life-of-mine average of US$884 an ounce is achieved through grid power, avoiding the diesel costs that burden most Cambodian and African peers, plus processing throughput 15% above design capacity. That cost position means Okvau remains cash-generative even if gold fell to US$2,000 an ounce, a buffer most mid-tier producers cannot match. The advantage is widening rather than eroding: Dingo Range and Memot are being designed around similarly favourable cost profiles, and permits for both are already secured, a scarce achievement in an industry where approvals typically take a decade. The trade-off is durability: with a single depleting mine underpinning most current cash flow, the advantage depends on replicating Okvau's cost discipline at two new, unproven sites over the next five to seven years.

Management & Capital Discipline

Management has repaid all debt, avoided dilutive acquisitions, and is self-funding both Dingo Range and Memot from operating cash flow rather than equity raisings, a rare feat for a company simultaneously building two mines. Okvau itself was delivered on time and on budget, and the team has since carried that discipline into permitting both growth projects ahead of schedule. The one blemish: FY26 production of 100,400 ounces landed below the 105,000-120,000 ounce guidance range, a modest miss but the first in seven years of otherwise reliable delivery. The more searching observation is that Emerald remains fully unhedged against gold prices, an implicit bet on the same structural gold thesis the market has already priced into the shares.

Financial Position

Emerald holds roughly A$434 million in net cash with no debt, funding both development projects without needing to tap equity or debt markets. Free cash flow of A$256 million in FY26 (39 cents per share, up from 23 cents in FY25) covered the year's A$69 million of capital spending several times over. That buffer will be tested as development capex steps up to a peak of A$330 million in FY28: even so, the cash position alone would fund more than a year of that spend without reference to operating cash flow. The balance sheet can comfortably absorb a period of lower gold prices.