Upside: Low

BXB

BXB: Pallet Pooling Giant - Premium Price, Circular Reality

Updated 24 Oct 2025

Brambles (BXB) trades at $23.23 with fair value US$11.53, implying 30% downside. Strong 22% EBITDA margins and 95% retention offset by elevated valuation at 17.0x P/E versus 15.5x peers.

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S32

S32: Mining Transformer - Hermosa's Heavy Lift

Updated 22 Oct 2025

South32 trades at 18% premium to $2.62 fair value with challenging risk-reward dynamics. ROIC 8.7% trails WACC 10.95%. High terminal dependency creates valuation uncertainty.

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JDO

JDO: SME Banking Specialist - Relationship Revolution or Overvalued Evolution?

Updated 22 Oct 2025

Specialist SME bank with 16% loan growth and NPS +53, trading at $1.73 vs $1.01 fair value. Strong execution but overvalued at current levels.

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CWY

CWY: Waste Management Leader - Blueprint for Defensive Growth

Updated 22 Oct 2025

Cleanaway trades at $2.87 vs $2.70 fair value, offering defensive infrastructure exposure with 25% market share, 24% EBITDA margins, and 8-10% expected returns.

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brn

BRN: Neuromorphic AI Pioneer - First to Market, Last to Profit?

Updated 20 Oct 2025

Fair value $0.121 vs current $0.225 (47% overvalued). 95% revenue CAGR forecast, 79% customer concentration, 68% failure probability. Speculative growth only.

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al3

AL3: Defence AM Pioneer - Certified Success, Overpriced Reality

Updated 20 Oct 2025

Fair value $0.051 vs current $0.24 implies 79% downside. Strong defence positioning overwhelmed by extreme valuation and persistent cash burn through 2030.

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ppt

PPT: Financial Services Transformer - Simplification's the Salvation

Updated 20 Oct 2025

Fair value $20.62 vs current $20.90. Corporate Trust moat with 45%+ margins. J O Hambro turnaround critical. Expected 3-year returns 2.5% annually.

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dro

DRO: Counterdrone Specialist - Flying High, Landing Hard

Updated 20 Oct 2025

Pure-play counterdrone leader trading at $4.99 vs $2.59 fair value. Strong growth potential undermined by working capital crisis and 85% execution failure probability.

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xrf

XRF: Analytical Equipment Specialist - Peak Performance, Peak Peril

Updated 20 Oct 2025

Analytical equipment manufacturer trading at $2.12 vs $1.21 fair value. Strong Q1 growth but unsustainable 27.6% EBITDA margins face inevitable compression.

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fid

FID: Integrated Wealth Platform - Quality Execution Meets Transition Complexity

Updated 20 Oct 2025

Fiducian trades at $12.57 vs $11.84 fair value with 52.1% ROIC and 7.2/10 quality score, managing platform transformation amid legacy business decline

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ilu

ILU: Mineral Sands Giant - Crisis Management Meets Critical Minerals

Updated 17 Oct 2025

HOLD rating with $5.25 fair value vs $8.10 current price. Quality mining operation with validated crisis management and rare earths transformation potential.

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sgp

SGP: Property Development Giant - Excellence Validated, Valuation Elevated

Updated 17 Oct 2025

HOLD rating with $4.53 fair value vs $6.43 current price. Strong Q1 operational performance validates management execution but creates 29.5% overvaluation concern requiring exceptional execution for positive returns.

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