Titomic trades at 620% premium to A$0.038 fair value despite -232% EBITDA margins. High-growth defence tech with 5-7 year patent moat faces binary execution risk on facility scaling and Tier-1 conversions. Venture capital-style bet requiring 3-5 year horizon.
View noteChallenging turnaround play with fair value -$0.022 vs current $0.050. Persistent losses, 5% churn, narrow moat. High risk, negative outlook.
View noteHeartland Group Holdings: Fair value $2.24 vs current $0.955 (+136% upside). Specialist banking transformation with reverse mortgage dominance, ADI deposit advantages, demographic tailwinds. Credit cycle recovery catalyst.
View noteCredit Clear trades at $0.27 vs fair value $0.45 (67% upside), recently profitable with 15.8% EBITDA margin, 95% Tier-1 retention, technology moat 5-7 years
View noteFair value $2.65 with 18.6% ROIC premium to sector. Victorian concentration risk offset by utility acquisitions and renewables positioning.
View noteASX trades at $58.42 vs fair value $70.15 (+20% upside). Dominant market position with 61% EBITDA margins, 13.8% ROIC. Near-term regulatory and execution risks offset by structural moat and superannuation tailwinds.
View noteKaroon Energy: Fair value A$6.00 vs current A$1.47 (+308% upside). Mid-tier offshore producer with 63.4% EBITDA margins, 54MMboe 2P reserves, facing near-term operational challenges creating valuation dislocation.
View noteMA Financial trades at $9.19 versus $11.41 fair value (24% upside). Strong execution with MA Money profitability inflection, 74% recurring revenue, 34% AUM growth. ROIC 19.0% vs WACC 9.2%. Quality score 7.8/10.
View noteRegis Healthcare acquiring aggressively at 7.5x EBITDA with $99m cash, 74 homes, $90m Q1 RAD inflows signal recovery, but valuation incomplete—integration execution critical.
View noteNorthern Star Resources: Australia's #2 gold producer trading at 102% premium to A$12.60 fair value. Operational excellence meets valuation excess with 51% downside risk.
View noteVista Group (VGL) trades at $2.52 AUD versus $2.09 USD fair value, offering 10.7% upside. Dominant 46% market share, 90% recurring revenue, cloud transformation driving 13.3% FY25E growth. Medium confidence, 3-5 year horizon.
View noteWoodside trades at $22.70 versus $39.37 fair value (73% upside). World-class 98.3% reliability, Scarborough 86% complete (H2 2026), Williams partnership validates Louisiana LNG. EBITDA margin 70.4%, development phase FCF compression temporary.
View note