ASX Reporting Season February 2026: Week 1
Five ASX companies analysed during the first week of February 2026 reporting season: Jumbo Interactive (77% undervalued), Credit Corp (41% undervalued), News Corp (21% undervalued), CAR Group (approximately fair value), and REA Group (23% overvalued).
Australian reporting season is underway and we have put five companies through our full analysis pipeline so far. Three are trading below our fair value estimates, one is priced well above what the fundamentals support, and one is trading at approximately fair value.
The Scorecard
| Company | Ticker | Sector | Price | Fair Value | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jumbo Interactive | JIN | Consumer Discretionary | $10.10 | $17.88 | +77% | Undervalued |
| Credit Corp | CCP | Financials | $11.58 | $16.30 | +41% | Undervalued |
| News Corp | NWS | Communication Services | $39.52 | $48.00 | +21% | Undervalued |
| CAR Group | CAR | Communication Services | $26.89 | $25.04 | -7% | Fair Value |
| REA Group | REA | Communication Services | $166.42 | $128.00 | -23% | Overvalued |
Jumbo Interactive (JIN)
BUY | $10.10 vs Fair Value $17.88 | 77% upside
Jumbo is trading below even our worst-case scenario, which is unusual for a business with a 51% return on invested capital and a founder-CEO with 30 years at the helm.
The catalyst is Dream Giveaways, launching in FY26, which is expected to drive 83% revenue growth. Free cash flow per share is forecast to triple from $0.88 to $2.62 over the forecast period, and ROE jumps from 28% to the high 40s.
The concentration risk is worth noting: 74% of revenue comes from a single TLC contract expiring in 2030. At the current price, though, the market is assigning almost no value to the growth pipeline, which gives patient investors a wide margin of error.
Credit Corp (CCP)
HOLD | $11.58 vs Fair Value $16.30 | 41% upside
Credit Corp looks deeply undervalued at a 41% discount to fair value with a 6% yield on top. The US turnaround is gaining traction and operational systems upgrades are lifting efficiency.
The reason for a HOLD rather than a BUY is structural: buy-now-pay-later platforms are eating into the purchased debt market that CCP depends on, and we estimate 25-40% market share risk beyond FY28. The near-term numbers are solid, but the competitive moat is narrowing rather than widening, which means the discount needs to be monitored against the evolving competitive landscape rather than treated as a straightforward entry point.
News Corp (NWS)
BUY | $39.52 vs Fair Value $48.00 | 21% upside
News Corp's portfolio (Dow Jones, a 61% stake in REA Group, HarperCollins) scores 8.06/10 on our business quality framework, among the highest ratings we have issued. The discount exists because the market applies a conglomerate penalty to a portfolio that is difficult to value as a whole.
Dow Jones alone is forecast to grow 87% to FY35, and the Digital Real Estate segment (driven by the REA stake) grows 93%. We also identify real options value worth an additional ~$7.90 per share from potential catalysts including an REA spin-off, News Media exit, and AI content licensing. The most likely near-term catalyst is the Australian property recovery flowing through to REA's earnings, which NWS captures 61% of.
CAR Group (CAR)
HOLD | $26.89 vs Fair Value $25.04 | Approximately fair value
CAR Group holds #1 marketplace positions in four geographies (Australia, Brazil, South Korea, US non-auto), generates 54% EBITDA margins, and converts 95% of EBITDA to operating cash flow. The business scored 7.8/10 on our quality framework, identical to REA Group, making these two the highest-quality marketplace businesses on the ASX.
The growth engine is LatAm, where Webmotors is growing at 23% in constant currency with roughly half the Brazilian dealer market still offline. The structural question is whether that growth translates to value creation: $4.2 billion of acquired goodwill compresses reported ROIC to 9% against a 9% WACC, meaning the business is currently earning approximately its cost of capital despite holding monopoly positions. If LatAm margins converge toward Australian levels over the next 5-7 years, the acquisitions will prove justified. If they do not, returns will remain marginal.
At A$26.89, the stock is priced within a few percent of our probability-weighted fair value of A$25.04, suggesting the market has the growth-versus-risk tradeoff roughly right. We see symmetric outcomes from here: +33% in a bull case (LatAm sustains, rates decline) versus -33% in a bear case (recession plus LatAm deceleration).
REA Group (REA)
HOLD | $166.42 vs Fair Value $128.00 | 23% overvalued
REA is Australia's dominant property portal with a wide moat, high earnings quality, 14% yield growth, and a 7.8/10 quality score. The business quality is not in question.
The issue is entirely about price. At $166, the market is pricing in optimistic assumptions about agent margin expansion and listing volume recovery. Our fair value of $128 suggests the stock needs to come back 23% before the risk-reward makes sense. Existing holders are justified in staying given the quality of the underlying business, but new positions are difficult to justify at this valuation.
Related Analysis
We have also published a comparison of REA Group and CAR Group, the two highest-quality marketplace businesses on the ASX, and an analysis of the REA Group and News Corp valuation paradox, which examines why the parent company is cheaper than the child.
Analysis generated by the Alpha Insights AI research pipeline. All fair values are point estimates subject to model uncertainty. This is not financial advice. Do your own research before making investment decisions.