Thoughts on markets, investing, and equity research.
February 2026 was the first reporting season where AI claims appeared in financial results, not just strategy slides. Three companies quantified impact (WTC, PPS, FLT), one showed adoption metrics (NHF), and three offered narrative only (SRV, AD8, SEK).
Twenty-plus ASX companies changed CEOs during one reporting season. Crisis departures average 4.8/10 quality, managed transitions 7.2/10. The bedding-in category, where new CEOs have had 6-18 months, offers 18% average upside.
Alpha Insights identifies five income channels, from inflation-indexed pensions to legislated superannuation drawdowns, that are insulating $4.9 trillion in retiree wealth from the RBA's interest rate tool. Bottom-up evidence from 400+ ASX-listed companies confirms the transmission failure.
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The energy transition thesis has fractured. Lithium names are crushed, traditional gas is undervalued, and uranium has attracted a speculative premium mirroring the lithium bubble. Capital is rotating between narratives, not toward value.
Five ASX companies are growing dividends while keeping payout ratios conservative. The dividend growth trajectory over FY26-28 matters more than the starting yield for investors building income streams.
Three ASX companies are running turnaround stories at very different stages. DMP is fairly priced after four CEO changes. OML offers 80% upside. SXL shows 275% but carries the highest execution risk.
Six ASX tech platforms carry quality scores of 8-9/10 and ROIC from 15% to 250%. Every one trades above fair value. The question is which premiums are earned and which are hope.
Consumer discretionary split into winners and losers. Differentiated platforms trade below fair value while legacy retail models carry premiums that assume a recovery not yet visible in the data.
Healthcare barely registered this reporting season. Three mid-caps show 32-177% upside to fair value. Healius carries the second-largest upside gap across all 278 companies in our coverage.
The post-COVID travel recovery is real but wildly uneven. THL and HLO show 115-188% upside to fair value. The question is who is converting bookings into sustainable earnings.
Gold is above US$2,900/oz but only one of five ASX gold miners trades below fair value. West African Resources offers 122% upside. The other four are priced as though record gold is the permanent floor.