Upside: Low

imr

IMR: MRI-Guided Pioneer - Monopoly's Mirage at Extreme Multiples

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Fair value $0.30 vs current $1.37 implies 78% downside risk. Monopolistic MRI-compatible cardiac ablation technology with FDA approval catalyst, but extreme 195x revenue valuation creates unfavourable risk-reward profile.

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imd

IMD: Mining Tech Pioneer - Digital Dreams Meet Drilling Reality

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Mining technology leader trading at 44% premium to $2.36 fair value. Strong 29.3% EBITDA margins, 490+ patents, but execution risks from three simultaneous acquisitions amid uncertain exploration recovery.

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idx

IDX: Diagnostic Imaging Giant - Leveraged to the Hilt, Priced for Perfection

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Australia's #2 diagnostic imaging provider trading at 129% premium to $1.16 fair value. High leverage, workforce constraints, and technology disruption create asymmetric downside risk.

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ibx

IBX: Biotech Bubble - MagSense® Makes No Sense at These Levels

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Clinical-stage biotechnology company trading at $1.62 vs fair value $0.13, facing 65% Phase 2 failure probability with extreme dilution risk ahead.

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hvn

HVN: Retail Giant - Peak Margins, Property Peaks, and Painful Reality Checks

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Harvey Norman trades at $7.29 vs $3.13 fair value (57% overvalued) with unsustainable margins and property cycle risks creating compelling value opportunity

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hdn

HDN: Daily Needs REIT - Pipeline's Running Dry, Premium's Running High

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Trading at $1.00 vs fair value $0.88. Business quality 5.9/10, EBITDA margins compressing 49.9% to 44.7%. Development pipeline finite, competitive moat narrowing 4-6 years.

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gwa

GWA: Water Solutions Giant - Plumbing the Depths of Value

Updated 8 Oct 2025

HOLD rating with $2.26 fair value vs $2.65 current price. Strong 5.85% dividend yield offset by customer concentration risks and margin compression pressures.

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gpt

GPT: Diversified REIT Giant - Caught Between Specialists and Structural Decline

Updated 8 Oct 2025

HOLD rating with $4.75 fair value vs $5.27 current price. 98.5% occupancy but office headwinds and 7.2x leverage create challenging outlook.

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gng

GNG: Engineering Services Specialist - Peak Performance, Peak Problems

Updated 8 Oct 2025

HOLD rating with $3.61 fair value vs $4.27 current price. Exceptional ROIC 71.6% offset by cyclical peak timing concerns and inevitable margin compression.

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gmg

GMG: Property Platform Powerhouse - Data Centre Dreams, Margin Reality

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Trading at $35.89 vs fair value $18.38 (95% premium). Development margins at 47.8% face compression to 42%. ROIC 8.2% trails WACC 9.6%. Quality business, extreme valuation.

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gmd

GMD: Gold Miner - Peak Performance Meets Mean Reversion Reality

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Genesis Minerals trades at A$4.53 versus fair value A$1.75 (-61%), with 49.4% EBITDA margins facing compression to 39% as grade depletes from 2.7g/t to 2.0g/t. ROIC 21.8%, narrow moat (6-8 years), high execution risk on A$1.5bn expansion.

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exp

EXP: Adventure Tourism Leader - Recovery Priced In, Headwinds Ahead

Updated 8 Oct 2025

HOLD rating with fair value $0.133 vs current $0.150. Market leader in ANZ adventure tourism with 25% share, EBITDA margins at 14.7%, facing climate and competitive headwinds.

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