Upside: Low

mp1

MP1: Network-as-a-Service Pioneer - Platform Dreams, Valuation Nightmares

Updated 8 Oct 2025

AVOID rating with fair value $4.20 vs current $14.82. Strong 19% revenue growth and 95% recurring revenue model undermined by extreme 253% overvaluation and cloud disintermediation risk.

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mgh

MGH: Construction Materials Consolidator - Infrastructure Dreams Meet Integration Reality

Updated 8 Oct 2025

HOLD rating with $3.34 fair value vs $4.24 current price. Strong infrastructure exposure offset by integration risks and overvaluation.

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lrk

LRK: Tasmanian Whisky Pioneer - Premium Priced, Execution Challenged

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Premium Tasmanian whisky producer trading at $0.76 vs $0.54 fair value. Business quality 3.98/10, EBITDA margins -20%, requiring $18-45m funding. International expansion critical but execution risks high.

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lnw

LNW: Gaming Platform Transformer - Cross-Platform Content Creates the Magic

Updated 8 Oct 2025

HOLD rating with $122.30 fair value vs $149 current price. Wide moat gaming platform with 7.5% revenue CAGR and 39% EBITDA margins, though 18% overvalued.

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lgi

LGI: Landfill Gas Leader - Expansion's Expensive, Execution's Everything

Updated 8 Oct 2025

LGI trades at $3.50 vs $1.37 fair value. Market leader with 65% share, 19.7% revenue CAGR, expanding 21MW to 56MW by FY30.

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lfg

LFG: Non-Bank Lending Leader - Margin Squeeze Meets Dividend Dreams

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Liberty Financial Group analysis: Fair value $3.96 vs current $4.29, 15.6% yield faces sustainability concerns, narrow moat eroding over 4-5 years

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kgn

KGN: E-commerce Transformer - Platform Dreams Meet Amazon Reality

Updated 8 Oct 2025

HOLD rating with $3.98 fair value vs $4.00 current price. Platform transformation showing 26.9% CAGR but facing Amazon competitive threat.

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jhx

JHX: Building Materials Behemoth - AZEK's Acquisition Ambition Meets Valuation Reality

Updated 9 Oct 2025

Strong Sell rating with fair value $11.26 vs current $30.98 - 83% overvaluation despite solid fundamentals and AZEK synergies

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jbh

JBH: Electronics Giant - Navigating the Amazon Storm

Updated 11 Oct 2025

Market-leading retailer with 35.2% ROIC trading at fair value $67.02, facing e-commerce disruption whilst maintaining exceptional operational efficiency and 25% market share.

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ire

IRE: Fintech Transformer - From Conglomerate Chaos to Software Success

Updated 8 Oct 2025

HOLD rating with $6.03 fair value vs $7.96 current price. Strong business quality (8.04/10) but overvalued with 24% downside risk despite transformation success.

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ipg

IPG: Electrical Distributor - Sparks Flying, But Wrong Direction

Updated 8 Oct 2025

HOLD rating with $3.28 fair value vs $3.73 current price. Revenue growth moderating to 5.7% CAGR with margin compression pressures.

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ina

INA: Lifestyle Communities Developer - Demographics Can't Save Overpriced Dreams

Updated 8 Oct 2025

HOLD rating with $3.60 fair value vs $5.96 current price. Strong demographics offset by execution risks and regulatory headwinds.

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