Upside: Low

tea

TEA: Industrial Services Consolidator - Integration Complexity Meets Margin Reality

Updated 8 Oct 2025

HOLD rating with $3.81 fair value vs $4.21 current price. Strong growth prospects offset by integration risks and margin compression pressures.

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tcl

TCL: Toll Road Titan - Premium Price, Perilous Position

Updated 8 Oct 2025

HOLD rating with $11.59 fair value vs $14.00 current price. Strong infrastructure franchise but elevated leverage and regulatory risks limit upside potential.

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sul

SUL: Retail Giant - Digital Disruption's Coming Home to Roost

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Super Retail Group trades at $16.21 vs fair value $13.56, facing digital disruption and margin pressure across four-brand specialty retail portfolio with 55% thesis failure probability.

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srg

SRG: Infrastructure Transformer - Annuity Dream Meets Margin Reality

Updated 8 Oct 2025

HOLD rating with $1.78 fair value vs $1.99 current price. Strong 80% annuity model offset by margin compression risks and 53% valuation premium to peers.

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som

SOM: Sleep Medicine Leader - Manufacturing Constraints Meet Reality Check

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Medical device manufacturer with 35-40% oral appliance market share. Fair value $0.30 vs current $0.70. EBITDA margins compressing, manufacturing constraints binding.

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sks

SKS: Data Centre Darling - Boom Turns to Bust as Competition Awakens

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Electrical contractor riding data centre wave faces inevitable margin compression. Fair value $1.55 vs current $2.97. EBITDA margins 9.0%, ROIC 84%, but competition emerging.

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sha

SHA: Construction Services Transformer - Three Pillars, Wrong Timing

Updated 8 Oct 2025

SHAPE trades at $4.28 vs fair value $3.30. Strong operations (86% Perfect Delivery, 78.6% ROIC) but execution complexity and cycle timing create unfavourable risk-reward.

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sfr

SFR: Copper Mining Excellence - Peak Performance, Peak Pricing Problem

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Mid-tier polymetallic miner with 45% EBITDA margins trading at $15.43 vs $3.82 fair value. Strong operations, challenging valuation at commodity cycle peak.

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sek

SEK: Employment Marketplace Monarch - Platform's United, Now Deliver the Goods

Updated 8 Oct 2025

HOLD rating with $23.21 fair value vs $25.16 current price. Platform Unification complete, targeting 46% EBITDA margins through operational leverage amid employment recovery.

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sdr

SDR: Platform Pioneer - Smart Money's Getting Smarter

Updated 8 Oct 2025

SiteMinder trades at $7.50 versus $3.68 fair value (51% overvaluation). Strong platform business with 7.4/10 quality score but execution risk limits appeal at current levels.

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sbm

SBM: PNG Gold Miner - Betting the Farm on Simberi's Sulphide Salvation

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Risk-adjusted fair value A$0.28 vs current A$0.35. Binary expansion project dependency with 30% failure probability creating -66% downside risk.

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rsg

RSG: West African Gold Miner - Fool's Gold at Peak Prices

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Resolute Mining analysis reveals 42% overvaluation at $0.72 vs $0.28 fair value, with execution risks and unsustainable gold margins creating asymmetric downside.

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