Upside: Low

a2m

A2M: Premium Dairy Specialist - First-Mover Advantage Fading Fast

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Trading at NZ$8.78 vs fair value NZ$5.06 (42% overvalued). China concentration (68% revenue) and imminent competitive entry (60% probability within 24 months) threaten premium positioning. EBITDA margins compressing from 15.1% peak to 14.0% as moat narrows.

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29m

29M: Copper Miner - Restart Roulette with Water Troubles

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Mid-tier copper producer facing binary restart execution at suspended Capricorn mine. Fair value $0.29 vs current $0.40 implies 28% overvaluation. High-grade resources offset by single-asset dependency and negative FCF through 2029.

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slc

SLC: Telco Challenger - Platform Promise, Premium Problem

Updated 8 Oct 2025

SELL rating with fair value $2.17 vs current $3.28. Strong platform economics validated but 51% overvaluation unsustainable.

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pnc

PNC: Debt Recovery Specialist - Profits Without Cash, Problems Without End

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Pioneer Credit analysis: SELL rating, fair value $0.44 vs current $0.59. Structural negative FCF despite profitability, 6.9x leverage approaching covenants.

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nsr

NSR: Self-Storage Supremo - Pipeline Dreams, Refinancing Nightmares

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Market leader with 26% share trading at $2.47 vs $1.66 fair value. Strong growth trajectory offset by execution risk and unsustainable 75.5% margins.

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mnd

MND: Engineering Services Provider - Peak Margins, Perilous Position

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Engineering services provider trading at $20.22 vs $11.62 fair value with EBITDA margins at unsustainable 7.0% peak facing labour cost pressures

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mgr

MGR: Property Platform Powerhouse - Leverage Trap Lurking Beneath

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Mirvac Group analysis reveals 73% downside to fair value of $0.73 despite quality assets, driven by unsustainable 5.7x debt/EBITDA leverage and negative free cash flow through FY32.

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mad

MAD: Technical Services Specialist - Culture Clash at Scale

Updated 8 Oct 2025

SELL rating with $5.34 fair value vs $8.26 current price. Strong operator facing labour cost pressures and scaling challenges.

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hsn

HSN: Billing Software Specialist - Premium Price, Commodity Future

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Hansen Technologies trades at $6.04 versus fair value of $4.87, with 28.4% EBITDA margins compressing to 25.3% as competitive moats narrow over 5-7 years.

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ask

ASK: Storage King Supreme - Pipeline Dreams Meet Reality Check

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Australia's largest self-storage operator trading at $1.52 vs $1.45 fair value with 25% market share, 4.1% yield, facing $256m development execution risk

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a1m

A1M: Copper Miner - Jericho's Make-or-Break Moment

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Development-stage copper producer with fair value A$0.289 vs current A$0.32. Binary Jericho execution risk with 70% combined failure probability creates unfavourable risk-reward for conservative investors.

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tgp

TGP: Dual-Platform Pioneer - Special Distribution, Special Problems

Updated 8 Oct 2025

SELL rating with fair value $0.40 vs current $0.62. EBITDA margins compressing from 60.9% to 44% as competitive threats emerge.

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