Articore Group analysis: Fair value A$0.19 vs current A$0.285 with negative ROIC, declining traffic, and structural marketplace challenges creating significant downside risk.
View noteHOLD rating with $4.37 fair value vs $4.50 current price. Strong $14.2bn order book but execution risks during steel programme transition. 11.8% revenue CAGR forecast.
View noteAirtasker trades at $0.42 vs fair value $0.171, with 61% Australian market share but struggling international expansion creating 55% failure probability.
View noteANZ trades at $32.95 versus fair value $9.62 (243% overvalued). Credit normalisation from 4bps to 20bps drives 71% downside over 24 months. Quality score 5.0/10, ROE declining to 8.6%.
View noteAnsell trades at $31.83 vs fair value $25.40 (-20% overvalued). Strong healthcare franchise faces examination glove commoditisation pressure with 55% thesis failure probability.
View noteGlobal packaging leader trading at $12.14 vs fair value $5.08. Quality deteriorating (5.5/10), leverage concerning (3.1x), margins unsustainable (14.4%).
View noteALS Limited trades at 16.0x EV/EBITDA (25% peer premium) despite 7.35/10 quality score. Fair value $16.77 vs current $19.78 implies 15.2% downside with mining cycle risks.
View noteMarket leader with 27% share faces 78% downside to DCF fair value of $6.42 as energy transition accelerates, EG integration challenges emerge, and peak 4.2% EBITDA margins compress toward 3.4% terminal levels.
View noteAuckland Airport trades at $7.03 vs $2.71 fair value (64% overvalued). Monopolistic 75% market share offset by negative NZ$500m annual FCF through 2028, 98.3% terminal value dependency, and inevitable margin compression from 69.8% peaks.
View noteHOLD rating with A$3.57 fair value vs A$6.07 current price. Dominant AV networking platform faces execution complexity and valuation premium challenges.
View noteABY trades at $0.80 vs $0.40 fair value with 50% downside risk. Store expansion faces execution challenges amid intensifying competition from Sephora and Mecca.
View noteIntegrated aluminium producer trading 36% above fair value at commodity peak. Quality operator facing inevitable mean reversion with 45% correction probability.
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