Fair value $6.00 vs current $15.53 (-61%). Australian monopoly faces IPART repricing (2H26), interoperability risk (40% probability 2nd operator FY27-28), and UK execution binary (viability threshold 2+ lenders by FY26).
View noteFair value $25.50 vs current $43.67 (-41.6%). Mature banking franchise at cost of equity equilibrium offering 7.2% yield (10-11% franked) with limited capital appreciation. ROE 11.4% declining to 10.5% terminal as competitive intensity constrains returns.
View noteWestpac trades 40% above $23.71 fair value despite operational deterioration. Cost-to-income rising to 53% (vs CBA's 43%) whilst UNITE delivers zero efficiency gains. Credit at unsustainable 5bps trough. Expected returns -11.2% annually. Avoid.
View noteAmazon trades at USD $173 vs fair value USD $88 (-49% overvalued). AWS 37% margins face hyperscaler compression, USD $120B AI capex unproven. Terminal value 65.8% creates asymmetric risk. Bear case -77%.
View noteAVOID. Fair value $8.38 vs current $9.16 (-9% downside). Challenger dominates 60% annuity share with 67.7% EBITDA margins, but faces compression to 58% as banks enter FY27. ROIC 12.5% declining to 10.0% vs 14.0% WACC. Quality 7.33/10, wide moat narrowing 6-8 years.
View noteCSL trades at $220.29 vs fair value $136.28 (62% premium). Strong plasma oligopoly moat (7.7/10 quality) executing $500M transformation targeting 34% EBITDA margins by FY28. Revenue growth 5.6% CAGR, but current valuation appears to fully reflect optimistic scenarios with limited margin of safety.
View noteTechnology-driven consumer lending platform with superior credit quality (807 vs peer 650-780) but faces fundamental capital structure challenges. Fair value $0.25 vs current $3.50 implies -93% return. Negative FCF requires perpetual dilution.
View noteTitomic trades at 620% premium to A$0.038 fair value despite -232% EBITDA margins. High-growth defence tech with 5-7 year patent moat faces binary execution risk on facility scaling and Tier-1 conversions. Venture capital-style bet requiring 3-5 year horizon.
View noteNorthern Star Resources: Australia's #2 gold producer trading at 102% premium to A$12.60 fair value. Operational excellence meets valuation excess with 51% downside risk.
View noteGlobal cochlear implant leader (62% share) with Nexa innovation and demographic tailwinds, though current $309 price implies -27% downside to $209 fair value. ROIC 24% vs WACC 8%, FY26 guidance 11-17% profit growth.
View noteBrambles (BXB) trades at $23.23 with fair value US$11.53, implying 30% downside. Strong 22% EBITDA margins and 95% retention offset by elevated valuation at 17.0x P/E versus 15.5x peers.
View noteSouth32 trades at 18% premium to $2.62 fair value with challenging risk-reward dynamics. ROIC 8.7% trails WACC 10.95%. High terminal dependency creates valuation uncertainty.
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