aii
AII: Tungsten Miner - Sangdong Dreams, Panasqueira Nightmares
Updated 8 Oct 2025
AVOID rating with -$0.40 USD fair value vs $7.02 AUD current price. Business quality 3.1/10, negative EBITDA margins, 78% failure probability.
View noteRisk: High
aia
AIA: Gateway Monopoly - Terminal Trouble Ahead
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Auckland Airport trades at $7.03 vs $2.71 fair value (64% overvalued). Monopolistic 75% market share offset by negative NZ$500m annual FCF through 2028, 98.3% terminal value dependency, and inevitable margin compression from 69.8% peaks.
View noteafg
AFG: Mortgage Aggregator - Manufacturing Mayhem Destroys Value
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Strong Sell rating with fair value -$1.64 vs current $2.69. Manufacturing segment destroys $3bn in capital whilst generating negative returns.
View noteael
AEL: Gas Infrastructure Play - Extreme Discount, Extraordinary Upside
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Trading at $0.26 vs $8.71 fair value (3,250% upside). OGPP reliability transformation to 99.4% unlocks operational leverage with 65% EBITDA margins. ECSP drilling Q2 FY26 targets 90 TJ/d new supply with 70% success probability in structurally tight market.
View notead8
AD8: Platform Powerhouse - Dante's Inferno or Digital Dominance?
Updated 8 Oct 2025
HOLD rating with A$3.57 fair value vs A$6.07 current price. Dominant AV networking platform faces execution complexity and valuation premium challenges.
View noteacu
ACU: Property Valuation Platform - Stuck in the Middle, Squeezed on All Sides
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Acumentis trades at $0.070 vs fair value $0.114 (63% upside). National platform with 2.1% market share faces AVM disruption threatening 40-60% revenue, margin compression to 5.1%, and subscale competitive disadvantage. ROIC 6.5% vs WACC 14.3% indicates value destruction.
View noteaby
ABY: Beauty E-commerce Pioneer - Transformation or Trap?
Updated 8 Oct 2025
ABY trades at $0.80 vs $0.40 fair value with 50% downside risk. Store expansion faces execution challenges amid intensifying competition from Sephora and Mecca.
View noteaapi
AAPI: Sports Betting Startup - Three Months to Make It or Break It
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Pre-revenue sports betting platform with 3-month cash runway, 78% failure probability, and $0.28 fair value versus $0.25 current price. Bottom-quartile quality (3.0/10) facing existential funding crisis.
View noteaal
AAL: Mining Equipment Specialist - Coal's Countdown, Infrastructure's Last Chance
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Trading at $0.45 vs fair value $0.46 (+2.2% upside), AAL faces 47% coal revenue exposure with 3-5 year transformation window. EBITDA margins compress 690bps to 21.9% as competitive advantages erode.
View noteaai
AAI: Aluminium Giant - Peak Pricing, Peak Problems
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Integrated aluminium producer trading 36% above fair value at commodity peak. Quality operator facing inevitable mean reversion with 45% correction probability.
View notea2m
A2M: Premium Dairy Specialist - First-Mover Advantage Fading Fast
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Trading at NZ$8.78 vs fair value NZ$5.06 (42% overvalued). China concentration (68% revenue) and imminent competitive entry (60% probability within 24 months) threaten premium positioning. EBITDA margins compressing from 15.1% peak to 14.0% as moat narrows.
View note29m
29M: Copper Miner - Restart Roulette with Water Troubles
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Mid-tier copper producer facing binary restart execution at suspended Capricorn mine. Fair value $0.29 vs current $0.40 implies 28% overvaluation. High-grade resources offset by single-asset dependency and negative FCF through 2029.
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