Risk: High

ben

BEN: Regional Banking Transformation - Digital Dreams Meet Margin Reality

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Trading at $12.84 vs fair value $11.23, BEN faces margin compression and transformation execution risks despite Up platform momentum and community banking moat.

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bbn

BBN: Baby Retail Leader - Store of the Future or Store of the Past?

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Baby Bunting trades at $2.60 vs fair value $1.56, with 12.1% revenue growth forecast but 5.2/10 business quality score below peers.

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avh

AVH: Regenerative Medicine Pioneer - Healing at the Crossroads

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Growth equity opportunity with $4.83 fair value, 22.9% revenue CAGR, wide competitive moat, high execution risk, suitable for healthcare specialists

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atg

ATG: Print-on-Demand Pioneer - Traffic's Tanking, Time's Ticking

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Articore Group analysis: Fair value A$0.19 vs current A$0.285 with negative ROIC, declining traffic, and structural marketplace challenges creating significant downside risk.

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asg

ASG: Luxury Auto Retailer - Cyclical Trough Creates 199% Recovery Opportunity

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Autosports Group trades at $2.69 versus $8.04 fair value (199% upside). Cyclical recovery from 5.8% to 6.9% EBITDA margins with 4.86x leverage and 18-36 month tactical horizon.

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asb

ASB: Naval Shipbuilder - Steel Yourself for Transformation

Updated 8 Oct 2025

HOLD rating with $4.37 fair value vs $4.50 current price. Strong $14.2bn order book but execution risks during steel programme transition. 11.8% revenue CAGR forecast.

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art

ART: Digital Marketplace Pioneer - Media Partnerships Can't Paper Over Platform Problems

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Airtasker trades at $0.42 vs fair value $0.171, with 61% Australian market share but struggling international expansion creating 55% failure probability.

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anz

ANZ: Banking Behemoth - Party's Over, Hangover Begins

Updated 8 Oct 2025

ANZ trades at $32.95 versus fair value $9.62 (243% overvalued). Credit normalisation from 4bps to 20bps drives 71% downside over 24 months. Quality score 5.0/10, ROE declining to 8.6%.

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ANN

ANN: PPE Giant - Gloves Off in the Commoditisation Fight

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Ansell trades at $31.83 vs fair value $25.40 (-20% overvalued). Strong healthcare franchise faces examination glove commoditisation pressure with 55% thesis failure probability.

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ang

ANG: Mining Equipment Specialist - Chile's Crisis Creates Value Opportunity

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Austin Engineering trades at 2.7x EBITDA vs sector 9.5x median. Fair value $0.78 vs current $0.30 reflects Chilean operational recovery potential and working capital normalisation.

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amc

AMC: Packaging Giant - Sustainability Story Meets Reality Check

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Global packaging leader trading at $12.14 vs fair value $5.08. Quality deteriorating (5.5/10), leverage concerning (3.1x), margins unsustainable (14.4%).

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ald

ALD: Integrated Fuel Giant - Transition's Ticking Time Bomb

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Market leader with 27% share faces 78% downside to DCF fair value of $6.42 as energy transition accelerates, EG integration challenges emerge, and peak 4.2% EBITDA margins compress toward 3.4% terminal levels.

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