Distressed metallurgical coal producer with negative fair value of -$0.21 USD, 65% probability of permanent capital loss, and September 2025 covenant testing creating binary outcomes.
View noteHOLD rating with $3.25 fair value vs $4.08 current price. 20% downside risk from premium valuation and unsustainable 0.61x distribution coverage.
View noteMarket-leading social infrastructure REIT with 15.2% share faces critical tenant concentration and refinancing risks. Fair value $1.80 vs current $0.97, though probability-weighted analysis suggests $0.57 reflecting structural challenges.
View noteCOSOL trades at $0.60 vs $0.96 fair value amid AMaaS transformation. 13.4% revenue growth forecast, 14.8% peak margins by FY28. Quality score 5.7/10, narrow moat, high execution risk.
View noteHOLD rating with NZ$5.60 fair value vs NZ$8.43 current price. 87% market share infrastructure monopoly facing 2028 regulatory reset risks and margin compression pressures.
View noteSELL rating with $5.20 fair value vs $12.51 current price. Industry-leading AISC of $1,468/oz but trading at 18.6x EV/EBITDA versus peer median 8.5x.
View noteHOLD rating with $3.62 fair value vs $4.10 current price. Operational turnaround story facing execution challenges and competitive pressure in circular economy sector.
View noteCharter Hall Group analysis reveals 50% overvaluation with fair value $11.04 vs current $22.01, facing competitive threats and margin compression despite market leadership.
View noteSTRONG SELL rating with 58% downside to $10.22 fair value. Peak 24.5% EBITDA margins face inevitable compression as technology commoditises.
View noteTrading at 30.0x EV/EBITDA (88% premium to peers), fair value $14.50 vs current $36.18 implies 60% downside despite strong operational metrics.
View noteAVOID rating with fair value $0.229 vs current $0.52. First profitable year achieved but trading at 56.6x EV/EBITDA versus peer median 12.5x.
View noteTrading at $5.25 vs $4.65 fair value. EBITDA margins compressing 5.7% to 4.2%. Manufacturing consolidation targeting $30m savings amid private label pressure.
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