Fair value $6.00 vs current $15.53 (-61%). Australian monopoly faces IPART repricing (2H26), interoperability risk (40% probability 2nd operator FY27-28), and UK execution binary (viability threshold 2+ lenders by FY26).
View noteWestpac trades 40% above $23.71 fair value despite operational deterioration. Cost-to-income rising to 53% (vs CBA's 43%) whilst UNITE delivers zero efficiency gains. Credit at unsustainable 5bps trough. Expected returns -11.2% annually. Avoid.
View noteTechnology-driven consumer lending platform with superior credit quality (807 vs peer 650-780) but faces fundamental capital structure challenges. Fair value $0.25 vs current $3.50 implies -93% return. Negative FCF requires perpetual dilution.
View noteTitomic trades at 620% premium to A$0.038 fair value despite -232% EBITDA margins. High-growth defence tech with 5-7 year patent moat faces binary execution risk on facility scaling and Tier-1 conversions. Venture capital-style bet requiring 3-5 year horizon.
View noteChallenging turnaround play with fair value -$0.022 vs current $0.050. Persistent losses, 5% churn, narrow moat. High risk, negative outlook.
View noteNorthern Star Resources: Australia's #2 gold producer trading at 102% premium to A$12.60 fair value. Operational excellence meets valuation excess with 51% downside risk.
View noteSouth32 trades at 18% premium to $2.62 fair value with challenging risk-reward dynamics. ROIC 8.7% trails WACC 10.95%. High terminal dependency creates valuation uncertainty.
View noteFair value $0.121 vs current $0.225 (47% overvalued). 95% revenue CAGR forecast, 79% customer concentration, 68% failure probability. Speculative growth only.
View noteFair value $0.051 vs current $0.24 implies 79% downside. Strong defence positioning overwhelmed by extreme valuation and persistent cash burn through 2030.
View notePure-play counterdrone leader trading at $4.99 vs $2.59 fair value. Strong growth potential undermined by working capital crisis and 85% execution failure probability.
View noteAnalytical equipment manufacturer trading at $2.12 vs $1.21 fair value. Strong Q1 growth but unsustainable 27.6% EBITDA margins face inevitable compression.
View noteIndustrial distribution turnaround with $6.64 fair value vs $0.605 current price. Q1 EBITDA recovery validates $10m cost program. High risk, exceptional upside potential.
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