zip
ZIP: BNPL Pioneer - Big Tech's Coming for the Crown
Updated 8 Oct 2025
SELL rating with $1.92 fair value vs $3.24 current price. 41% overvalued despite 147% EBITDA growth as Big Tech disruption threatens market position.
View noteQuality: Good
xro
XRO: Cloud Accounting Leader - Bubble's Burst, Reality Bites
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Strong SaaS business with 55% Australia market share trading at 42x EBITDA vs 24x peer median. Fair value NZ$48.58 implies 72% downside from current NZ$174.30.
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XIAC: Ecosystem Innovator - Too Many Balls in the Air
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Xiaomi trades at $52.35 vs $42.06 fair value. Strong ecosystem growth offset by execution complexity across smartphones, EVs, and IoT segments.
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WTC: Logistics Software Titan - Integration Complexity Meets Valuation Reality
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Dominant logistics platform with 99%+ retention trading at extreme 42x P/E. Fair value $12.62 vs $101.96 current price implies 88% downside risk.
View noteWOW
WOW: Grocery Giant - Transformation Gamble at Premium Price
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Woolworths trades at $28.88 versus $19.39 fair value. Market leader faces margin pressure and execution risks. Quality business at wrong price.
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WOR: Engineering Giant - Transition's Trusted Partner
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Engineering services leader trading at $14.45 vs $18.72 fair value with 69% sustainable backlog positioning for energy transition opportunities.
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VNT: Infrastructure Giant - Peak Performance, Perilous Path
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Essential infrastructure leader trading near fair value $5.10 with 8.2% EBITDA margins facing inevitable compression. Defensive 3.9% yield offset by ACCC risk and safety concerns.
View notevee
VEE: Marine Tech Monopolist - Gyro Dreams, Valuation Nightmares
Updated 8 Oct 2025
VEEM trades at $1.25 vs $0.87 fair value with 85% gyro market share, 18.6% revenue CAGR projected, but 30% overvaluation risk.
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VCX: Retail REIT Royalty - Peak Performance, Perilous Pricing
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Australia's #2 retail REIT with fortress assets trading at $2.57 vs $1.82 fair value. Peak 99.5% occupancy faces normalisation. ROIC 4.1% below 9.5% WACC indicates value destruction despite quality portfolio.
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VAU: Gold Miner - Peak Margins, Peak Problems
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Intermediate gold producer trading 60% above fair value of A$0.375 despite strong balance sheet. EBITDA margins face compression from 43.2% to 35%.
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UNI: Fashion Retailer - Perfect Storm Brewing Despite Perfect Stranger
Updated 8 Oct 2025
HOLD rating with $7.64 fair value vs $8.54 current price. Strong execution but fashion cycle risks mounting.
View notetyr
TYR: Payments Pioneer - From Processor to Platform Powerhouse
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Tyro Payments analysis: Fair value $1.66 vs current $1.20 (38% upside). Health market leader (25% share) expanding into banking and new verticals. CEO transition risk balanced by strong balance sheet.
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