Moat: Narrow

dro

DRO: Counterdrone Specialist - Flying High, Landing Hard

Updated 20 Oct 2025

Pure-play counterdrone leader trading at $4.99 vs $2.59 fair value. Strong growth potential undermined by working capital crisis and 85% execution failure probability.

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bap

BAP: Automotive Aftermarket Leader - Transformation's Taking Time, But Value's Taking Shape

Updated 20 Oct 2025

Market-leading automotive distributor trading at 13% discount during operational transformation. Fair value $4.21 vs current $3.17 implies 33% upside with medium risk profile.

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xrf

XRF: Analytical Equipment Specialist - Peak Performance, Peak Peril

Updated 20 Oct 2025

Analytical equipment manufacturer trading at $2.12 vs $1.21 fair value. Strong Q1 growth but unsustainable 27.6% EBITDA margins face inevitable compression.

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fid

FID: Integrated Wealth Platform - Quality Execution Meets Transition Complexity

Updated 20 Oct 2025

Fiducian trades at $12.57 vs $11.84 fair value with 52.1% ROIC and 7.2/10 quality score, managing platform transformation amid legacy business decline

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cyg

CYG: Industrial Distributor - Back to Basics, Forward to Profits

Updated 17 Oct 2025

Industrial distribution turnaround with $6.64 fair value vs $0.605 current price. Q1 EBITDA recovery validates $10m cost program. High risk, exceptional upside potential.

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ngi

NGI: Alternative Asset Powerhouse - Flight to Quality Creates Exceptional Opportunity

Updated 17 Oct 2025

Alternative asset manager trading at $2.16 vs $5.60 fair value (159% upside) with record AUM growth and operational excellence validation

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sgp

SGP: Property Development Giant - Excellence Validated, Valuation Elevated

Updated 17 Oct 2025

HOLD rating with $4.53 fair value vs $6.43 current price. Strong Q1 operational performance validates management execution but creates 29.5% overvaluation concern requiring exceptional execution for positive returns.

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boq

BOQ: Regional Banking Specialist - Digital Transformation at a Discount

Updated 15 Oct 2025

Regional bank transformation trading at 29% discount to $9.31 fair value, with specialist banking margins and digital execution driving value creation through operational leverage.

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twe

TWE: Luxury Wine Transformation - Execution Overwhelm Derails Premium Dreams

Updated 15 Oct 2025

Treasury Wine Estates faces material execution challenges with fair value $4.68 vs current $6.835, implying -32% overvaluation amid China weakness and operational bandwidth constraints.

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zip

ZIP: BNPL Pioneer - Big Tech's Coming for the Crown

Updated 8 Oct 2025

SELL rating with $1.92 fair value vs $3.24 current price. 41% overvalued despite 147% EBITDA growth as Big Tech disruption threatens market position.

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xro

XRO: Cloud Accounting Leader - Bubble's Burst, Reality Bites

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Strong SaaS business with 55% Australia market share trading at 42x EBITDA vs 24x peer median. Fair value NZ$48.58 implies 72% downside from current NZ$174.30.

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xiac

XIAC: Ecosystem Innovator - Too Many Balls in the Air

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Xiaomi trades at $52.35 vs $42.06 fair value. Strong ecosystem growth offset by execution complexity across smartphones, EVs, and IoT segments.

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