Moat: Narrow

MAF

MAF: Financial Services Transformer - Money's Made, Market's Missed It

Updated 24 Oct 2025

MA Financial trades at $9.19 versus $11.41 fair value (24% upside). Strong execution with MA Money profitability inflection, 74% recurring revenue, 34% AUM growth. ROIC 19.0% vs WACC 9.2%. Quality score 7.8/10.

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REG

REG: Aged Care Consolidator - Betting the House on Integration

Updated 24 Oct 2025

Regis Healthcare acquiring aggressively at 7.5x EBITDA with $99m cash, 74 homes, $90m Q1 RAD inflows signal recovery, but valuation incomplete—integration execution critical.

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NST

NST: Gold Mining Giant - Priced for Perfection, Positioned for Pain

Updated 24 Oct 2025

Northern Star Resources: Australia's #2 gold producer trading at 102% premium to A$12.60 fair value. Operational excellence meets valuation excess with 51% downside risk.

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IFL

IFL: Wealth Platform Powerhouse - Separation's Set the Stage for Efficiency

Updated 24 Oct 2025

Attractive rating with fair value $4.61 vs current $4.505. Strong operational momentum with 3.1% FUMA growth to $340.5bn and positive $1.0bn net inflows. Trading at 42% discount to peers (7.4x vs 12.8x EV/EBITDA) despite comparable quality.

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HLO

HLO: Travel Network Giant - Discount Departure Lounge

Updated 24 Oct 2025

Trading at 48% discount to peers despite 31.1% margins and 96% franchise retention. Fair value $3.62 vs current $1.83 implies 98% upside potential.

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S32

S32: Mining Transformer - Hermosa's Heavy Lift

Updated 22 Oct 2025

South32 trades at 18% premium to $2.62 fair value with challenging risk-reward dynamics. ROIC 8.7% trails WACC 10.95%. High terminal dependency creates valuation uncertainty.

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PPS

PPS: Wealth Platform Pioneer - Premium Positioning Pays Dividends

Updated 22 Oct 2025

Premium wealth platform leader trading at 35% discount to $0.91 fair value, with 15.2% ROIC and 95% recurring revenue model targeting HNW growth.

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JDO

JDO: SME Banking Specialist - Relationship Revolution or Overvalued Evolution?

Updated 22 Oct 2025

Specialist SME bank with 16% loan growth and NPS +53, trading at $1.73 vs $1.01 fair value. Strong execution but overvalued at current levels.

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AMI

AMI: Base Metals Miner - Federation's Firing, Cobar's Calling

Updated 22 Oct 2025

Undervalued base metals producer with 232% upside potential. Fair value $0.63 vs current $0.19. Strong EBITDA margins 35.5%, net cash position, targeting 40kt copper equivalent by FY28.

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brn

BRN: Neuromorphic AI Pioneer - First to Market, Last to Profit?

Updated 20 Oct 2025

Fair value $0.121 vs current $0.225 (47% overvalued). 95% revenue CAGR forecast, 79% customer concentration, 68% failure probability. Speculative growth only.

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al3

AL3: Defence AM Pioneer - Certified Success, Overpriced Reality

Updated 20 Oct 2025

Fair value $0.051 vs current $0.24 implies 79% downside. Strong defence positioning overwhelmed by extreme valuation and persistent cash burn through 2030.

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ppt

PPT: Financial Services Transformer - Simplification's the Salvation

Updated 20 Oct 2025

Fair value $20.62 vs current $20.90. Corporate Trust moat with 45%+ margins. J O Hambro turnaround critical. Expected 3-year returns 2.5% annually.

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