XRO: Cloud Accounting Leader - Bubble's Burst, Reality Bites
Strong SaaS business with 55% Australia market share trading at 42x EBITDA vs 24x peer median. Fair value NZ$48.58 implies 72% downside from current NZ$174.30.
View noteStrong SaaS business with 55% Australia market share trading at 42x EBITDA vs 24x peer median. Fair value NZ$48.58 implies 72% downside from current NZ$174.30.
View noteXiaomi trades at $52.35 vs $42.06 fair value. Strong ecosystem growth offset by execution complexity across smartphones, EVs, and IoT segments.
View noteWoolworths trades at $28.88 versus $19.39 fair value. Market leader faces margin pressure and execution risks. Quality business at wrong price.
View noteEngineering services leader trading at $14.45 vs $18.72 fair value with 69% sustainable backlog positioning for energy transition opportunities.
View noteEssential infrastructure leader trading near fair value $5.10 with 8.2% EBITDA margins facing inevitable compression. Defensive 3.9% yield offset by ACCC risk and safety concerns.
View noteIntermediate gold producer trading 60% above fair value of A$0.375 despite strong balance sheet. EBITDA margins face compression from 43.2% to 35%.
View noteHOLD rating with $7.64 fair value vs $8.54 current price. Strong execution but fashion cycle risks mounting.
View noteTyro Payments analysis: Fair value $1.66 vs current $1.20 (38% upside). Health market leader (25% share) expanding into banking and new verticals. CEO transition risk balanced by strong balance sheet.
View noteTPG Telecom analysis: Partnership-enabled transformation creating competitive advantages. Fair value $11.97 vs current $5.17. Strong financial health, narrow moat, medium risk.
View noteAustralia's leading government ERP SaaS provider with 21% ARR growth, 42.3% EBITDA margins, trading at $39.01 versus $53.32 fair value, offering 37% upside through SaaS+ model scaling and UK expansion validation.
View noteService Stream trades at $2.07 vs $3.09 fair value (49% upside). EBITDA margins expanding to 6.5%, ROIC 13.2%, net cash $74m.
View noteTrading at $1.48 vs $2.61 fair value (76% upside). Transform-UTM private brand validates strategic transformation. 25% market share, 89 NPS, debt-free balance sheet.
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