Fair value $25.50 vs current $43.67 (-41.6%). Mature banking franchise at cost of equity equilibrium offering 7.2% yield (10-11% franked) with limited capital appreciation. ROE 11.4% declining to 10.5% terminal as competitive intensity constrains returns.
View noteAustralia's #1 insurance broker aggregator (16% share, 402 members) trades 8% below $6.56 fair value despite fortress financials (18.7% ROIC, 127% FCF conversion). Premium cycle trough (1-2% pricing) normalises FY27-28 driving $125m revenue per 1% uplift.
View noteHealthcare technology leader with 28.5% market share and 94.3% device connectivity. Fair value $187.65 vs current $128 (47% upside). EBITDA margins peak 37.5% FY26 before compression to 30.7% terminal. Medicare risk 85% probability. Quality score 7.6/10.
View noteWestpac trades 40% above $23.71 fair value despite operational deterioration. Cost-to-income rising to 53% (vs CBA's 43%) whilst UNITE delivers zero efficiency gains. Credit at unsustainable 5bps trough. Expected returns -11.2% annually. Avoid.
View noteAmazon trades at USD $173 vs fair value USD $88 (-49% overvalued). AWS 37% margins face hyperscaler compression, USD $120B AI capex unproven. Terminal value 65.8% creates asymmetric risk. Bear case -77%.
View noteAVOID. Fair value $8.38 vs current $9.16 (-9% downside). Challenger dominates 60% annuity share with 67.7% EBITDA margins, but faces compression to 58% as banks enter FY27. ROIC 12.5% declining to 10.0% vs 14.0% WACC. Quality 7.33/10, wide moat narrowing 6-8 years.
View noteCSL trades at $220.29 vs fair value $136.28 (62% premium). Strong plasma oligopoly moat (7.7/10 quality) executing $500M transformation targeting 34% EBITDA margins by FY28. Revenue growth 5.6% CAGR, but current valuation appears to fully reflect optimistic scenarios with limited margin of safety.
View noteFair value $2.65 with 18.6% ROIC premium to sector. Victorian concentration risk offset by utility acquisitions and renewables positioning.
View noteASX trades at $58.42 vs fair value $70.15 (+20% upside). Dominant market position with 61% EBITDA margins, 13.8% ROIC. Near-term regulatory and execution risks offset by structural moat and superannuation tailwinds.
View noteKaroon Energy: Fair value A$6.00 vs current A$1.47 (+308% upside). Mid-tier offshore producer with 63.4% EBITDA margins, 54MMboe 2P reserves, facing near-term operational challenges creating valuation dislocation.
View noteRegis Healthcare acquiring aggressively at 7.5x EBITDA with $99m cash, 74 homes, $90m Q1 RAD inflows signal recovery, but valuation incomplete—integration execution critical.
View noteNorthern Star Resources: Australia's #2 gold producer trading at 102% premium to A$12.60 fair value. Operational excellence meets valuation excess with 51% downside risk.
View note