equity-research

AMI

AMI: Base Metals Miner - Federation's Firing, Cobar's Calling

Updated 22 Oct 2025

Undervalued base metals producer with 232% upside potential. Fair value $0.63 vs current $0.19. Strong EBITDA margins 35.5%, net cash position, targeting 40kt copper equivalent by FY28.

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brn

BRN: Neuromorphic AI Pioneer - First to Market, Last to Profit?

Updated 20 Oct 2025

Fair value $0.121 vs current $0.225 (47% overvalued). 95% revenue CAGR forecast, 79% customer concentration, 68% failure probability. Speculative growth only.

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al3

AL3: Defence AM Pioneer - Certified Success, Overpriced Reality

Updated 20 Oct 2025

Fair value $0.051 vs current $0.24 implies 79% downside. Strong defence positioning overwhelmed by extreme valuation and persistent cash burn through 2030.

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ppt

PPT: Financial Services Transformer - Simplification's the Salvation

Updated 20 Oct 2025

Fair value $20.62 vs current $20.90. Corporate Trust moat with 45%+ margins. J O Hambro turnaround critical. Expected 3-year returns 2.5% annually.

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dro

DRO: Counterdrone Specialist - Flying High, Landing Hard

Updated 20 Oct 2025

Pure-play counterdrone leader trading at $4.99 vs $2.59 fair value. Strong growth potential undermined by working capital crisis and 85% execution failure probability.

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bap

BAP: Automotive Aftermarket Leader - Transformation's Taking Time, But Value's Taking Shape

Updated 20 Oct 2025

Market-leading automotive distributor trading at 13% discount during operational transformation. Fair value $4.21 vs current $3.17 implies 33% upside with medium risk profile.

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xrf

XRF: Analytical Equipment Specialist - Peak Performance, Peak Peril

Updated 20 Oct 2025

Analytical equipment manufacturer trading at $2.12 vs $1.21 fair value. Strong Q1 growth but unsustainable 27.6% EBITDA margins face inevitable compression.

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fid

FID: Integrated Wealth Platform - Quality Execution Meets Transition Complexity

Updated 20 Oct 2025

Fiducian trades at $12.57 vs $11.84 fair value with 52.1% ROIC and 7.2/10 quality score, managing platform transformation amid legacy business decline

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ilu

ILU: Mineral Sands Giant - Crisis Management Meets Critical Minerals

Updated 17 Oct 2025

HOLD rating with $5.25 fair value vs $8.10 current price. Quality mining operation with validated crisis management and rare earths transformation potential.

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cyg

CYG: Industrial Distributor - Back to Basics, Forward to Profits

Updated 17 Oct 2025

Industrial distribution turnaround with $6.64 fair value vs $0.605 current price. Q1 EBITDA recovery validates $10m cost program. High risk, exceptional upside potential.

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ngi

NGI: Alternative Asset Powerhouse - Flight to Quality Creates Exceptional Opportunity

Updated 17 Oct 2025

Alternative asset manager trading at $2.16 vs $5.60 fair value (159% upside) with record AUM growth and operational excellence validation

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qfe

QFE: Professional Services Lender - Transformation Complete, Value Creation Commences

Updated 17 Oct 2025

Pure lending specialist with A$0.446 fair value vs A$0.115 current price, 18.5% ROIC, A$35.8M cash, 74% margin of safety

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