aii
AII: Tungsten Miner - Sangdong Dreams, Panasqueira Nightmares
Updated 8 Oct 2025
AVOID rating with -$0.40 USD fair value vs $7.02 AUD current price. Business quality 3.1/10, negative EBITDA margins, 78% failure probability.
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aia
AIA: Gateway Monopoly - Terminal Trouble Ahead
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Auckland Airport trades at $7.03 vs $2.71 fair value (64% overvalued). Monopolistic 75% market share offset by negative NZ$500m annual FCF through 2028, 98.3% terminal value dependency, and inevitable margin compression from 69.8% peaks.
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AGL: Energy Giant - Powering Through the Great Transition
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Fair value $14.96 vs current $9.76. Market leader executing renewable transformation with 9.6GW pipeline. EBITDA margins expanding 13.2% to 17.7%.
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AGI: Gaming Equipment Specialist - Horse Racing's Hidden Gem
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Deep value opportunity trading at A$1.01 vs A$3.13 fair value. HHR network dominance with 10,496 units, pending Novomatic acquisition catalyst.
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AFG: Mortgage Aggregator - Manufacturing Mayhem Destroys Value
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Strong Sell rating with fair value -$1.64 vs current $2.69. Manufacturing segment destroys $3bn in capital whilst generating negative returns.
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AEL: Gas Infrastructure Play - Extreme Discount, Extraordinary Upside
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Trading at $0.26 vs $8.71 fair value (3,250% upside). OGPP reliability transformation to 99.4% unlocks operational leverage with 65% EBITDA margins. ECSP drilling Q2 FY26 targets 90 TJ/d new supply with 70% success probability in structurally tight market.
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ADH: Home Furnishings Retailer - Linen Lover's Transformation Gambit
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Adairs trades at $2.59 vs $3.34 fair value (29% upside), with transformation under new CEO showing early momentum (22.6% Q1 sales growth) though Focus challenges and technology execution create 53% combined failure probability requiring disciplined risk management.
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AD8: Platform Powerhouse - Dante's Inferno or Digital Dominance?
Updated 8 Oct 2025
HOLD rating with A$3.57 fair value vs A$6.07 current price. Dominant AV networking platform faces execution complexity and valuation premium challenges.
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ACU: Property Valuation Platform - Stuck in the Middle, Squeezed on All Sides
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Acumentis trades at $0.070 vs fair value $0.114 (63% upside). National platform with 2.1% market share faces AVM disruption threatening 40-60% revenue, margin compression to 5.1%, and subscale competitive disadvantage. ROIC 6.5% vs WACC 14.3% indicates value destruction.
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ABY: Beauty E-commerce Pioneer - Transformation or Trap?
Updated 8 Oct 2025
ABY trades at $0.80 vs $0.40 fair value with 50% downside risk. Store expansion faces execution challenges amid intensifying competition from Sephora and Mecca.
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ABB: Telco Transformer - From NBN Challenger to Platform Player
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Trading at $4.48 vs fair value $6.48, ABB shows 44.6% upside with 8.4% NBN market share, 11.6% EBITDA margins, and diversified revenue streams.
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AAPI: Sports Betting Startup - Three Months to Make It or Break It
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Pre-revenue sports betting platform with 3-month cash runway, 78% failure probability, and $0.28 fair value versus $0.25 current price. Bottom-quartile quality (3.0/10) facing existential funding crisis.
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