equity-research

apz

AIA: Aviation Gateway - Terminal Integration's Make-or-Break Moment

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Auckland Airport trades at NZ$4.36 versus fair value NZ$5.10, with 18% ROIC and 69.8% EBITDA margins offset by NZ$3.5bn Terminal Integration execution risk through FY29.

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apa

APA: Gas Transmission Giant - Transition Fuel or Stranded Asset?

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Infrastructure utility trading at $8.57 vs $11.09 fair value (29.4% upside). 48% market share, 74.2% EBITDA margins, 86% contracted revenues through 2051. Energy transition risks vs defensive moat characteristics.

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aov

AOV: Aftermarket Ace - Unified and Ready to Accelerate

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Amotiv trades at $8.74 vs $10.21 fair value, offering 16.8% upside through defensive aftermarket positioning and $10m transformation catalyst with 22.7% EBITDA margins.

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anz

ANZ: Banking Behemoth - Party's Over, Hangover Begins

Updated 8 Oct 2025

ANZ trades at $32.95 versus fair value $9.62 (243% overvalued). Credit normalisation from 4bps to 20bps drives 71% downside over 24 months. Quality score 5.0/10, ROE declining to 8.6%.

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ANN

ANN: PPE Giant - Gloves Off in the Commoditisation Fight

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Ansell trades at $31.83 vs fair value $25.40 (-20% overvalued). Strong healthcare franchise faces examination glove commoditisation pressure with 55% thesis failure probability.

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ang

ANG: Mining Equipment Specialist - Chile's Crisis Creates Value Opportunity

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Austin Engineering trades at 2.7x EBITDA vs sector 9.5x median. Fair value $0.78 vs current $0.30 reflects Chilean operational recovery potential and working capital normalisation.

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amp

AMP: Retirement Specialist - Transformation Complete, Value Creation Commences

Updated 8 Oct 2025

AMP trades at $1.63 vs $1.93 fair value following successful transformation to retirement specialist. 18% upside with 4.9% yield and wide moat characteristics.

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amc

AMC: Packaging Giant - Sustainability Story Meets Reality Check

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Global packaging leader trading at $12.14 vs fair value $5.08. Quality deteriorating (5.5/10), leverage concerning (3.1x), margins unsustainable (14.4%).

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alx

ALX: Toll Road Infrastructure - Regulatory Storm Creates Value Highway

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Atlas Arteria trades at A$49.20 versus A$87.49 fair value, offering 75% upside through regulatory normalisation catalysts with 4.9% yield and 98% FCF conversion.

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alq

ALQ: Testing Services Giant - Hub Expansion Gamble at Premium Prices

Updated 8 Oct 2025

ALS Limited trades at 16.0x EV/EBITDA (25% peer premium) despite 7.35/10 quality score. Fair value $16.77 vs current $19.78 implies 15.2% downside with mining cycle risks.

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all

ALL: Gaming Content Leader - Digital Transformation Deals the Cards

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Trading at $68.84 vs fair value $79.44 (15.4% upside). Gaming Operations market leader (42% share) with Interactive division scaling toward $1bn revenue by FY29. ROIC 19.2% vs WACC 10.3%.

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ald

ALD: Integrated Fuel Giant - Transition's Ticking Time Bomb

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Market leader with 27% share faces 78% downside to DCF fair value of $6.42 as energy transition accelerates, EG integration challenges emerge, and peak 4.2% EBITDA margins compress toward 3.4% terminal levels.

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