equity-research

col

COL: Supermarket Stalwart - Automation's Promise, Amazon's Threat

Updated 8 Oct 2025

HOLD rating on Coles Group at $23.20 vs $23.35 fair value. Defensive duopoly position with 28% market share faces ACCC penalties and Amazon entry risk.

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cnu

CNU: Fibre Infrastructure Giant - Regulatory Reset Roulette

Updated 8 Oct 2025

HOLD rating with NZ$5.60 fair value vs NZ$8.43 current price. 87% market share infrastructure monopoly facing 2028 regulatory reset risks and margin compression pressures.

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cni

CNI: Alternative Asset Platform - AI Infrastructure Meets Property Expertise

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Alternative asset manager trading at $1.98 vs $2.66 fair value. Strong fundamentals with 14.2% ROIC, 33.4% EBITDA margins, defensive 75% recurring revenues.

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cmm

CMM: Gold Mining Giant - Peak Prices, Peak Problems

Updated 8 Oct 2025

SELL rating with $5.20 fair value vs $12.51 current price. Industry-leading AISC of $1,468/oz but trading at 18.6x EV/EBITDA versus peer median 8.5x.

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clg

CLG: Circular Economy Player - Recycling Problems, Not Just Waste

Updated 8 Oct 2025

HOLD rating with $3.62 fair value vs $4.10 current price. Operational turnaround story facing execution challenges and competitive pressure in circular economy sector.

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chc

CHC: Property Platform Powerhouse - Premium Price, Perfect Storm Brewing

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Charter Hall Group analysis reveals 50% overvaluation with fair value $11.04 vs current $22.01, facing competitive threats and margin compression despite market leadership.

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cen

CEN: Renewable Energy Transformer - Power Play or Pipeline Peril?

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Hold rating with $7.80 fair value vs $8.14 current price. 98% renewable portfolio, 20% market share, 8.4% revenue CAGR, but execution risks from $3.1bn concurrent initiatives.

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cda

CDA: Defence Tech Darling - Peak Performance, Peak Peril

Updated 8 Oct 2025

STRONG SELL rating with 58% downside to $10.22 fair value. Peak 24.5% EBITDA margins face inevitable compression as technology commoditises.

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ccp

CCP: Debt Buying Dynamo - Transformation's Terminal Value Trap

Updated 8 Oct 2025

HOLD rating with $10.31 fair value vs $15.62 current price. Strong market leadership offset by 36% overvaluation and execution risk across multiple strategic initiatives.

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cba

CBA: Banking Behemoth - Party's Over, Hangover Begins

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Australia's dominant bank faces cyclical normalisation from peak metrics. Fair value $122.47 vs current $185.00. Quality franchise, challenging outlook.

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bvs

BVS: Wealth Management Software - Digital Dreams, Succession Schemes

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Specialised wealth management software provider trading at $2.21 vs $1.53 fair value. Strong business quality (7.6/10) with 19.5% EBITDA margins but facing competitive pressure and CEO succession uncertainty.

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bsl

BSL: Steel Cycle Survivor - Trough to Peak Recovery Play

Updated 8 Oct 2025

BlueScope Steel analysis: Fair value $28.30 vs current $24.24 (16.7% upside). EBITDA margins recovering from 8.9% trough to 11.7% target. Multi-domestic strategy, net cash balance sheet.

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