equity-research

gmg

GMG: Property Platform Powerhouse - Data Centre Dreams, Margin Reality

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Trading at $35.89 vs fair value $18.38 (95% premium). Development margins at 47.8% face compression to 42%. ROIC 8.2% trails WACC 9.6%. Quality business, extreme valuation.

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gmd

GMD: Gold Miner - Peak Performance Meets Mean Reversion Reality

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Genesis Minerals trades at A$4.53 versus fair value A$1.75 (-61%), with 49.4% EBITDA margins facing compression to 39% as grade depletes from 2.7g/t to 2.0g/t. ROIC 21.8%, narrow moat (6-8 years), high execution risk on A$1.5bn expansion.

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fwd

FWD: Modular Construction Leader - Deep Value at Cyclical Peak

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Trading at $2.94 vs $6.91 fair value (135% upside). Strong balance sheet, 48% recurring revenue, 23.1% ROIC. Cyclical normalisation expected.

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fsa

FSA: Non-Bank Lender - Debt Burden Drowns Transformation Success

Updated 8 Oct 2025

FSA Group analysis reveals negative $4.84 fair value despite operational improvements, with 15% probability of positive equity value given structural debt overhang.

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frw

FRW: Logistics Leader - Market's Missing the Delivery

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Freightways trades at NZ$10.22 versus NZ$20.85 fair value (104% upside). Market-leading logistics provider with 19.8% EBITDA margins, 14.2% ROIC, and demonstrated pricing power trading at 47% discount to peers.

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fmg

FMG: Iron Ore Cost Leader - Fortress Balance Sheet Meets Cyclical Recovery

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Fortescue trades at A$19.84 versus fair value A$26.47 (33% upside), with 2.4x EV/EBITDA at 41% discount to peers despite industry-leading C1 costs US$17.99/wmt and 0.14x net debt-to-EBITDA.

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flt

FLT: Travel Giant - Transformation Takes Flight

Updated 8 Oct 2025

BUY rating with $17.07 fair value vs $12.38 current price. Strong Australian market position, successful operational transformation, 38% upside potential over 18-24 months.

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fbu

FBU: Building Materials Giant - Concrete Foundations, Golden Opportunities

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Fletcher Building trades at $2.84 vs fair value $5.56, offering 96% upside through construction cycle recovery and strategic portfolio optimization.

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eye

EYE: MIGS Pioneer - Breakeven or Bust in the Canal Zone

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Nova Eye Medical: BUY rating, A$0.48 fair value vs A$0.14 current price (243% upside). Pre-profit MIGS specialist targeting H1FY26 breakeven with 25% revenue growth.

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exp

EXP: Adventure Tourism Leader - Recovery Priced In, Headwinds Ahead

Updated 8 Oct 2025

HOLD rating with fair value $0.133 vs current $0.150. Market leader in ANZ adventure tourism with 25% share, EBITDA margins at 14.7%, facing climate and competitive headwinds.

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evo

EVO: Childcare Consolidator - Small Fish, Big Pond Opportunity

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Fair value $0.84 vs current $0.72. 22% EBITDA margins, 72% government funding, 13% revenue growth. Consolidation platform in fragmented market.

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eqt

EQT: Trustee Services Leader - Independence Pays, But Patience Required

Updated 8 Oct 2025

HOLD rating with $28.34 fair value vs $27.04 current price. Market leader in independent trustee services with 8.3% FCF yield, though regulatory overhang and fee compression limit upside.

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