equity-research

mgh

MGH: Construction Materials Consolidator - Infrastructure Dreams Meet Integration Reality

Updated 8 Oct 2025

HOLD rating with $3.34 fair value vs $4.24 current price. Strong infrastructure exposure offset by integration risks and overvaluation.

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mfg

MFG: Asset Manager Alchemist - Partnerships Turn Base Metal into Gold

Updated 8 Oct 2025

HOLD rating with $13.07 fair value vs $10.94 current price. Partnership income surged 202% to 38% of profit. 6.7% dividend yield with transformation execution risk.

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mah

MAH: Mining Services Specialist - Underground Ambitions Meet Cycle Reality

Updated 8 Oct 2025

HOLD rating with $0.40 fair value vs $0.37 current price. Strong 20.5% ROIC and underground expansion offset by peak cycle positioning and execution risks.

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m7t

M7T: Healthcare IT Transformer - Vendor Neutral's Vital Signs

Updated 8 Oct 2025

HOLD rating with $0.35 fair value vs $0.32 current price. SaaS transformation progressing with 75% recurring revenue, 95%+ retention, but execution risks during leadership transition.

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lyl

LYL: Mining Engineering Specialist - SAXUM Success Unlocks Latin Leverage

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Lycopodium trades at $12.00 vs fair value $16.62, offering 38.5% upside through technical differentiation, SAXUM integration, and critical minerals recovery with 32.8% ROIC.

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LYC

LYC: Rare Earth Monopolist - Heavy Metal, Heavier Risks

Updated 8 Oct 2025

HOLD rating with A$14.73 fair value vs A$14.61 current price. Strategic HRE monopoly outside China driving 32% EBITDA margins by FY27, though Malaysian regulatory renewal March 2026 creates binary risk.

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lrk

LRK: Tasmanian Whisky Pioneer - Premium Priced, Execution Challenged

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Premium Tasmanian whisky producer trading at $0.76 vs $0.54 fair value. Business quality 3.98/10, EBITDA margins -20%, requiring $18-45m funding. International expansion critical but execution risks high.

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lnw

LNW: Gaming Platform Transformer - Cross-Platform Content Creates the Magic

Updated 8 Oct 2025

HOLD rating with $122.30 fair value vs $149 current price. Wide moat gaming platform with 7.5% revenue CAGR and 39% EBITDA margins, though 18% overvalued.

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llc

LLC: Real Estate Transformer - Capital Recycling's Make-or-Break Moment

Updated 8 Oct 2025

HOLD rating with fair value $6.96 vs current $5.55. Transformation story with 25% upside potential but elevated execution risks from $2bn capital recycling programme.

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lgi

LGI: Landfill Gas Leader - Expansion's Expensive, Execution's Everything

Updated 8 Oct 2025

LGI trades at $3.50 vs $1.37 fair value. Market leader with 65% share, 19.7% revenue CAGR, expanding 21MW to 56MW by FY30.

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lfg

LFG: Non-Bank Lending Leader - Margin Squeeze Meets Dividend Dreams

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Liberty Financial Group analysis: Fair value $3.96 vs current $4.29, 15.6% yield faces sustainability concerns, narrow moat eroding over 4-5 years

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lau

LAU: Agricultural Logistics Integrator - Fruit Loop's Bearing Fruit

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Deep value opportunity with 361% upside potential. Fair value $3.55 vs current $0.77. EBITDA margins recovering to 12% through transport cycle normalisation and integration synergies.

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