Earnings: Medium

HLO

HLO: Travel Network Giant - Discount Departure Lounge

Updated 24 Oct 2025

Trading at 48% discount to peers despite 31.1% margins and 96% franchise retention. Fair value $3.62 vs current $1.83 implies 98% upside potential.

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S32

S32: Mining Transformer - Hermosa's Heavy Lift

Updated 22 Oct 2025

South32 trades at 18% premium to $2.62 fair value with challenging risk-reward dynamics. ROIC 8.7% trails WACC 10.95%. High terminal dependency creates valuation uncertainty.

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CXL

CXL: Industrial Decarbonisation Pioneer - Platform's Scaling, Policy's Paying

Updated 22 Oct 2025

BUY rating with $0.98 fair value vs $0.485 current price (85% upside). Platform technology across $50bn+ TAM, 16% revenue CAGR, 80% grant success rate.

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AMI

AMI: Base Metals Miner - Federation's Firing, Cobar's Calling

Updated 22 Oct 2025

Undervalued base metals producer with 232% upside potential. Fair value $0.63 vs current $0.19. Strong EBITDA margins 35.5%, net cash position, targeting 40kt copper equivalent by FY28.

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ppt

PPT: Financial Services Transformer - Simplification's the Salvation

Updated 20 Oct 2025

Fair value $20.62 vs current $20.90. Corporate Trust moat with 45%+ margins. J O Hambro turnaround critical. Expected 3-year returns 2.5% annually.

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bap

BAP: Automotive Aftermarket Leader - Transformation's Taking Time, But Value's Taking Shape

Updated 20 Oct 2025

Market-leading automotive distributor trading at 13% discount during operational transformation. Fair value $4.21 vs current $3.17 implies 33% upside with medium risk profile.

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cyg

CYG: Industrial Distributor - Back to Basics, Forward to Profits

Updated 17 Oct 2025

Industrial distribution turnaround with $6.64 fair value vs $0.605 current price. Q1 EBITDA recovery validates $10m cost program. High risk, exceptional upside potential.

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sgp

SGP: Property Development Giant - Excellence Validated, Valuation Elevated

Updated 17 Oct 2025

HOLD rating with $4.53 fair value vs $6.43 current price. Strong Q1 operational performance validates management execution but creates 29.5% overvaluation concern requiring exceptional execution for positive returns.

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boq

BOQ: Regional Banking Specialist - Digital Transformation at a Discount

Updated 15 Oct 2025

Regional bank transformation trading at 29% discount to $9.31 fair value, with specialist banking margins and digital execution driving value creation through operational leverage.

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twe

TWE: Luxury Wine Transformation - Execution Overwhelm Derails Premium Dreams

Updated 15 Oct 2025

Treasury Wine Estates faces material execution challenges with fair value $4.68 vs current $6.835, implying -32% overvaluation amid China weakness and operational bandwidth constraints.

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zip

ZIP: BNPL Pioneer - Big Tech's Coming for the Crown

Updated 8 Oct 2025

SELL rating with $1.92 fair value vs $3.24 current price. 41% overvalued despite 147% EBITDA growth as Big Tech disruption threatens market position.

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xiac

XIAC: Ecosystem Innovator - Too Many Balls in the Air

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Xiaomi trades at $52.35 vs $42.06 fair value. Strong ecosystem growth offset by execution complexity across smartphones, EVs, and IoT segments.

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