Fair value $6.00 vs current $15.53 (-61%). Australian monopoly faces IPART repricing (2H26), interoperability risk (40% probability 2nd operator FY27-28), and UK execution binary (viability threshold 2+ lenders by FY26).
View noteFair value $25.50 vs current $43.67 (-41.6%). Mature banking franchise at cost of equity equilibrium offering 7.2% yield (10-11% franked) with limited capital appreciation. ROE 11.4% declining to 10.5% terminal as competitive intensity constrains returns.
View noteWestpac trades 40% above $23.71 fair value despite operational deterioration. Cost-to-income rising to 53% (vs CBA's 43%) whilst UNITE delivers zero efficiency gains. Credit at unsustainable 5bps trough. Expected returns -11.2% annually. Avoid.
View noteTechnology-driven consumer lending platform with superior credit quality (807 vs peer 650-780) but faces fundamental capital structure challenges. Fair value $0.25 vs current $3.50 implies -93% return. Negative FCF requires perpetual dilution.
View noteHeartland Group Holdings: Fair value $2.24 vs current $0.955 (+136% upside). Specialist banking transformation with reverse mortgage dominance, ADI deposit advantages, demographic tailwinds. Credit cycle recovery catalyst.
View noteCredit Clear trades at $0.27 vs fair value $0.45 (67% upside), recently profitable with 15.8% EBITDA margin, 95% Tier-1 retention, technology moat 5-7 years
View noteFair value $2.65 with 18.6% ROIC premium to sector. Victorian concentration risk offset by utility acquisitions and renewables positioning.
View noteKaroon Energy: Fair value A$6.00 vs current A$1.47 (+308% upside). Mid-tier offshore producer with 63.4% EBITDA margins, 54MMboe 2P reserves, facing near-term operational challenges creating valuation dislocation.
View noteRegis Healthcare acquiring aggressively at 7.5x EBITDA with $99m cash, 74 homes, $90m Q1 RAD inflows signal recovery, but valuation incomplete—integration execution critical.
View noteNorthern Star Resources: Australia's #2 gold producer trading at 102% premium to A$12.60 fair value. Operational excellence meets valuation excess with 51% downside risk.
View noteVista Group (VGL) trades at $2.52 AUD versus $2.09 USD fair value, offering 10.7% upside. Dominant 46% market share, 90% recurring revenue, cloud transformation driving 13.3% FY25E growth. Medium confidence, 3-5 year horizon.
View noteTrading at 48% discount to peers despite 31.1% margins and 96% franchise retention. Fair value $3.62 vs current $1.83 implies 98% upside potential.
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