asx

hgh

HGH: Specialist Banking Transformation - Demographic Goldmine at Cyclical Trough

Updated 24 Oct 2025

Heartland Group Holdings: Fair value $2.24 vs current $0.955 (+136% upside). Specialist banking transformation with reverse mortgage dominance, ADI deposit advantages, demographic tailwinds. Credit cycle recovery catalyst.

View note

ccr

CCR: Debt Collections Disruptor - AI-Powered Turnaround Trades at Steep Discount

Updated 24 Oct 2025

Credit Clear trades at $0.27 vs fair value $0.45 (67% upside), recently profitable with 15.8% EBITDA margin, 95% Tier-1 retention, technology moat 5-7 years

View note

syl

SYL: Infrastructure Contractor - Victorian Peak Meets Utility Pivot

Updated 24 Oct 2025

Fair value $2.65 with 18.6% ROIC premium to sector. Victorian concentration risk offset by utility acquisitions and renewables positioning.

View note

asx

ASX: Exchange Operator - Monopoly Under Scrutiny, Margin Recovery Ahead

Updated 24 Oct 2025

ASX trades at $58.42 vs fair value $70.15 (+20% upside). Dominant market position with 61% EBITDA margins, 13.8% ROIC. Near-term regulatory and execution risks offset by structural moat and superannuation tailwinds.

View note

KAR

KAR: Offshore Oil Producer - Operational Hiccups Hide Hidden Treasure

Updated 24 Oct 2025

Karoon Energy: Fair value A$6.00 vs current A$1.47 (+308% upside). Mid-tier offshore producer with 63.4% EBITDA margins, 54MMboe 2P reserves, facing near-term operational challenges creating valuation dislocation.

View note

MAF

MAF: Financial Services Transformer - Money's Made, Market's Missed It

Updated 24 Oct 2025

MA Financial trades at $9.19 versus $11.41 fair value (24% upside). Strong execution with MA Money profitability inflection, 74% recurring revenue, 34% AUM growth. ROIC 19.0% vs WACC 9.2%. Quality score 7.8/10.

View note

REG

REG: Aged Care Consolidator - Betting the House on Integration

Updated 24 Oct 2025

Regis Healthcare acquiring aggressively at 7.5x EBITDA with $99m cash, 74 homes, $90m Q1 RAD inflows signal recovery, but valuation incomplete—integration execution critical.

View note

NST

NST: Gold Mining Giant - Priced for Perfection, Positioned for Pain

Updated 24 Oct 2025

Northern Star Resources: Australia's #2 gold producer trading at 102% premium to A$12.60 fair value. Operational excellence meets valuation excess with 51% downside risk.

View note

WDS

WDS: LNG Infrastructure Giant - Williams Deal Unlocks Atlantic Value

Updated 24 Oct 2025

Woodside trades at $22.70 versus $39.37 fair value (73% upside). World-class 98.3% reliability, Scarborough 86% complete (H2 2026), Williams partnership validates Louisiana LNG. EBITDA margin 70.4%, development phase FCF compression temporary.

View note

IFL

IFL: Wealth Platform Powerhouse - Separation's Set the Stage for Efficiency

Updated 24 Oct 2025

Attractive rating with fair value $4.61 vs current $4.505. Strong operational momentum with 3.1% FUMA growth to $340.5bn and positive $1.0bn net inflows. Trading at 42% discount to peers (7.4x vs 12.8x EV/EBITDA) despite comparable quality.

View note

COH

COH: Hearing Solutions Leader - Smart Implants, Smarter Valuation?

Updated 24 Oct 2025

Global cochlear implant leader (62% share) with Nexa innovation and demographic tailwinds, though current $309 price implies -27% downside to $209 fair value. ROIC 24% vs WACC 8%, FY26 guidance 11-17% profit growth.

View note

BXB

BXB: Pallet Pooling Giant - Premium Price, Circular Reality

Updated 24 Oct 2025

Brambles (BXB) trades at $23.23 with fair value US$11.53, implying 30% downside. Strong 22% EBITDA margins and 95% retention offset by elevated valuation at 17.0x P/E versus 15.5x peers.

View note