asx

gwa

GWA: Water Solutions Giant - Plumbing the Depths of Value

Updated 8 Oct 2025

HOLD rating with $2.26 fair value vs $2.65 current price. Strong 5.85% dividend yield offset by customer concentration risks and margin compression pressures.

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gqg

GQG: Global Asset Manager - Defensive Genius or Margin Mirage?

Updated 8 Oct 2025

HOLD rating with $1.47 fair value vs $1.757 current price. Exceptional 76% EBITDA margins offset by defensive positioning headwinds and succession risk.

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gpt

GPT: Diversified REIT Giant - Caught Between Specialists and Structural Decline

Updated 8 Oct 2025

HOLD rating with $4.75 fair value vs $5.27 current price. 98.5% occupancy but office headwinds and 7.2x leverage create challenging outlook.

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gng

GNG: Engineering Services Specialist - Peak Performance, Peak Problems

Updated 8 Oct 2025

HOLD rating with $3.61 fair value vs $4.27 current price. Exceptional ROIC 71.6% offset by cyclical peak timing concerns and inevitable margin compression.

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gmg

GMG: Property Platform Powerhouse - Data Centre Dreams, Margin Reality

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Trading at $35.89 vs fair value $18.38 (95% premium). Development margins at 47.8% face compression to 42%. ROIC 8.2% trails WACC 9.6%. Quality business, extreme valuation.

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gmd

GMD: Gold Miner - Peak Performance Meets Mean Reversion Reality

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Genesis Minerals trades at A$4.53 versus fair value A$1.75 (-61%), with 49.4% EBITDA margins facing compression to 39% as grade depletes from 2.7g/t to 2.0g/t. ROIC 21.8%, narrow moat (6-8 years), high execution risk on A$1.5bn expansion.

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fwd

FWD: Modular Construction Leader - Deep Value at Cyclical Peak

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Trading at $2.94 vs $6.91 fair value (135% upside). Strong balance sheet, 48% recurring revenue, 23.1% ROIC. Cyclical normalisation expected.

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fsa

FSA: Non-Bank Lender - Debt Burden Drowns Transformation Success

Updated 8 Oct 2025

FSA Group analysis reveals negative $4.84 fair value despite operational improvements, with 15% probability of positive equity value given structural debt overhang.

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fmg

FMG: Iron Ore Cost Leader - Fortress Balance Sheet Meets Cyclical Recovery

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Fortescue trades at A$19.84 versus fair value A$26.47 (33% upside), with 2.4x EV/EBITDA at 41% discount to peers despite industry-leading C1 costs US$17.99/wmt and 0.14x net debt-to-EBITDA.

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flt

FLT: Travel Giant - Transformation Takes Flight

Updated 8 Oct 2025

BUY rating with $17.07 fair value vs $12.38 current price. Strong Australian market position, successful operational transformation, 38% upside potential over 18-24 months.

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eye

EYE: MIGS Pioneer - Breakeven or Bust in the Canal Zone

Updated 8 Oct 2025

Nova Eye Medical: BUY rating, A$0.48 fair value vs A$0.14 current price (243% upside). Pre-profit MIGS specialist targeting H1FY26 breakeven with 25% revenue growth.

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exp

EXP: Adventure Tourism Leader - Recovery Priced In, Headwinds Ahead

Updated 8 Oct 2025

HOLD rating with fair value $0.133 vs current $0.150. Market leader in ANZ adventure tourism with 25% share, EBITDA margins at 14.7%, facing climate and competitive headwinds.

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