Ryan Lim

Santos Limited (STO) - Q3 2025 Operational Update

Alpha Insights Equity Research | 17 October 2025 Current Price: A$6.38 | Updated Fair Value: A$7.96 (previously A$10.45) Working through the backlog of companies that have provided an update this week. Full automation of the updater process is nearly completed - just a few more loose

NGI: Alternative Asset Powerhouse - Flight to Quality Creates Exceptional Opportunity

Alternative asset manager trading at $2.16 vs $5.60 fair value (159% upside) with record AUM growth and operational excellence validation

QFE: Professional Services Lender - Transformation Complete, Value Creation Commences

Pure lending specialist with A$0.446 fair value vs A$0.115 current price, 18.5% ROIC, A$35.8M cash, 74% margin of safety

FEX: Iron Ore Transformer - Partnership Power Play Pays Off

BUY rating with A$1.65 fair value vs A$0.52 current price. Strategic Baowu partnership, 6-10Mt scaling potential, 8.6/10 business quality.

SGP: Property Development Giant - Excellence Validated, Valuation Elevated

HOLD rating with $4.53 fair value vs $6.43 current price. Strong Q1 operational performance validates management execution but creates 29.5% overvaluation concern requiring exceptional execution for positive returns.

STO: Gas Giant's Crisis Catalyst - When Problems Prove Prowess

Santos trades 34% below $8.54 fair value at $6.38, with operational resilience validated through crisis management and 25% expected returns from project delivery.

BANK OF QUEENSLAND (BOQ)

BOQ: Regional Banking Specialist - Digital Transformation at a Discount

Regional bank transformation trading at 29% discount to $9.31 fair value, with specialist banking margins and digital execution driving value creation through operational leverage.

TWE: Luxury Wine Transformation - Execution Overwhelm Derails Premium Dreams

Treasury Wine Estates faces material execution challenges with fair value $4.68 vs current $6.835, implying -32% overvaluation amid China weakness and operational bandwidth constraints.

Alpha Insights update - TWE earnings downgrade (13th Oct).

ZIP: BNPL Pioneer - Big Tech's Coming for the Crown

SELL rating with $1.92 fair value vs $3.24 current price. 41% overvalued despite 147% EBITDA growth as Big Tech disruption threatens market position.

XRO: Cloud Accounting Leader - Bubble's Burst, Reality Bites

Strong SaaS business with 55% Australia market share trading at 42x EBITDA vs 24x peer median. Fair value NZ$48.58 implies 72% downside from current NZ$174.30.