ALX: Toll Road Infrastructure - Regulatory Storm Creates Value Highway
Atlas Arteria trades at A$49.20 versus A$87.49 fair value, offering 75% upside through regulatory normalisation catalysts with 4.9% yield and 98% FCF conversion.
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Atlas Arteria trades at A$49.20 versus A$87.49 fair value, offering 75% upside through regulatory normalisation catalysts with 4.9% yield and 98% FCF conversion.
View noteALS Limited trades at 16.0x EV/EBITDA (25% peer premium) despite 7.35/10 quality score. Fair value $16.77 vs current $19.78 implies 15.2% downside with mining cycle risks.
View noteTrading at $68.84 vs fair value $79.44 (15.4% upside). Gaming Operations market leader (42% share) with Interactive division scaling toward $1bn revenue by FY29. ROIC 19.2% vs WACC 10.3%.
View noteMarket leader with 27% share faces 78% downside to DCF fair value of $6.42 as energy transition accelerates, EG integration challenges emerge, and peak 4.2% EBITDA margins compress toward 3.4% terminal levels.
View noteAVOID rating with -$0.40 USD fair value vs $7.02 AUD current price. Business quality 3.1/10, negative EBITDA margins, 78% failure probability.
View noteAuckland Airport trades at $7.03 vs $2.71 fair value (64% overvalued). Monopolistic 75% market share offset by negative NZ$500m annual FCF through 2028, 98.3% terminal value dependency, and inevitable margin compression from 69.8% peaks.
View noteFair value $14.96 vs current $9.76. Market leader executing renewable transformation with 9.6GW pipeline. EBITDA margins expanding 13.2% to 17.7%.
View noteDeep value opportunity trading at A$1.01 vs A$3.13 fair value. HHR network dominance with 10,496 units, pending Novomatic acquisition catalyst.
View noteStrong Sell rating with fair value -$1.64 vs current $2.69. Manufacturing segment destroys $3bn in capital whilst generating negative returns.
View noteTrading at $0.26 vs $8.71 fair value (3,250% upside). OGPP reliability transformation to 99.4% unlocks operational leverage with 65% EBITDA margins. ECSP drilling Q2 FY26 targets 90 TJ/d new supply with 70% success probability in structurally tight market.
View noteAdairs trades at $2.59 vs $3.34 fair value (29% upside), with transformation under new CEO showing early momentum (22.6% Q1 sales growth) though Focus challenges and technology execution create 53% combined failure probability requiring disciplined risk management.
View noteHOLD rating with A$3.57 fair value vs A$6.07 current price. Dominant AV networking platform faces execution complexity and valuation premium challenges.
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