cda
CDA: Defence Tech Darling - Peak Performance, Peak Peril
Updated 8 Oct 2025
STRONG SELL rating with 58% downside to $10.22 fair value. Peak 24.5% EBITDA margins face inevitable compression as technology commoditises.
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Ryan Lim
ccp
CCP: Debt Buying Dynamo - Transformation's Terminal Value Trap
Updated 8 Oct 2025
HOLD rating with $10.31 fair value vs $15.62 current price. Strong market leadership offset by 36% overvaluation and execution risk across multiple strategic initiatives.
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CBA: Banking Behemoth - Party's Over, Hangover Begins
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Australia's dominant bank faces cyclical normalisation from peak metrics. Fair value $122.47 vs current $185.00. Quality franchise, challenging outlook.
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BVS: Wealth Management Software - Digital Dreams, Succession Schemes
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Specialised wealth management software provider trading at $2.21 vs $1.53 fair value. Strong business quality (7.6/10) with 19.5% EBITDA margins but facing competitive pressure and CEO succession uncertainty.
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BSL: Steel Cycle Survivor - Trough to Peak Recovery Play
Updated 8 Oct 2025
BlueScope Steel analysis: Fair value $28.30 vs current $24.24 (16.7% upside). EBITDA margins recovering from 8.9% trough to 11.7% target. Multi-domestic strategy, net cash balance sheet.
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BRG: Premium Appliance Powerhouse - When Perfect Execution Still Isn't Enough
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Trading at 30.0x EV/EBITDA (88% premium to peers), fair value $14.50 vs current $36.18 implies 60% downside despite strong operational metrics.
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BIO: Probiotics Pioneer - Priced for Perfection, Positioned for Pain
Updated 8 Oct 2025
AVOID rating with fair value $0.229 vs current $0.52. First profitable year achieved but trading at 56.6x EV/EBITDA versus peer median 12.5x.
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BGA: Dairy Giant - Spread Too Thin, Margins Melting
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Trading at $5.25 vs $4.65 fair value. EBITDA margins compressing 5.7% to 4.2%. Manufacturing consolidation targeting $30m savings amid private label pressure.
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BEN: Regional Banking Transformation - Digital Dreams Meet Margin Reality
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Trading at $12.84 vs fair value $11.23, BEN faces margin compression and transformation execution risks despite Up platform momentum and community banking moat.
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BBN: Baby Retail Leader - Store of the Future or Store of the Past?
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Baby Bunting trades at $2.60 vs fair value $1.56, with 12.1% revenue growth forecast but 5.2/10 business quality score below peers.
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AVH: Regenerative Medicine Pioneer - Healing at the Crossroads
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Growth equity opportunity with $4.83 fair value, 22.9% revenue CAGR, wide competitive moat, high execution risk, suitable for healthcare specialists
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AUB: Insurance Intermediary - Lloyd's Access Unlocks Global Growth
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Fair value $41.52 vs current $33.29 (24.7% upside). Strong Lloyd's market access, digital platform leadership, 78% recurring revenue, defensive characteristics.
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