hdn
HDN: Daily Needs REIT - Pipeline's Running Dry, Premium's Running High
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Trading at $1.00 vs fair value $0.88. Business quality 5.9/10, EBITDA margins compressing 49.9% to 44.7%. Development pipeline finite, competitive moat narrowing 4-6 years.
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gwa
GWA: Water Solutions Giant - Plumbing the Depths of Value
Updated 8 Oct 2025
HOLD rating with $2.26 fair value vs $2.65 current price. Strong 5.85% dividend yield offset by customer concentration risks and margin compression pressures.
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gqg
GQG: Global Asset Manager - Defensive Genius or Margin Mirage?
Updated 8 Oct 2025
HOLD rating with $1.47 fair value vs $1.757 current price. Exceptional 76% EBITDA margins offset by defensive positioning headwinds and succession risk.
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gpt
GPT: Diversified REIT Giant - Caught Between Specialists and Structural Decline
Updated 8 Oct 2025
HOLD rating with $4.75 fair value vs $5.27 current price. 98.5% occupancy but office headwinds and 7.2x leverage create challenging outlook.
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gng
GNG: Engineering Services Specialist - Peak Performance, Peak Problems
Updated 8 Oct 2025
HOLD rating with $3.61 fair value vs $4.27 current price. Exceptional ROIC 71.6% offset by cyclical peak timing concerns and inevitable margin compression.
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gmg
GMG: Property Platform Powerhouse - Data Centre Dreams, Margin Reality
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Trading at $35.89 vs fair value $18.38 (95% premium). Development margins at 47.8% face compression to 42%. ROIC 8.2% trails WACC 9.6%. Quality business, extreme valuation.
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gmd
GMD: Gold Miner - Peak Performance Meets Mean Reversion Reality
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Genesis Minerals trades at A$4.53 versus fair value A$1.75 (-61%), with 49.4% EBITDA margins facing compression to 39% as grade depletes from 2.7g/t to 2.0g/t. ROIC 21.8%, narrow moat (6-8 years), high execution risk on A$1.5bn expansion.
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fwd
FWD: Modular Construction Leader - Deep Value at Cyclical Peak
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Trading at $2.94 vs $6.91 fair value (135% upside). Strong balance sheet, 48% recurring revenue, 23.1% ROIC. Cyclical normalisation expected.
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fsa
FSA: Non-Bank Lender - Debt Burden Drowns Transformation Success
Updated 8 Oct 2025
FSA Group analysis reveals negative $4.84 fair value despite operational improvements, with 15% probability of positive equity value given structural debt overhang.
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frw
FRW: Logistics Leader - Market's Missing the Delivery
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Freightways trades at NZ$10.22 versus NZ$20.85 fair value (104% upside). Market-leading logistics provider with 19.8% EBITDA margins, 14.2% ROIC, and demonstrated pricing power trading at 47% discount to peers.
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fmg
FMG: Iron Ore Cost Leader - Fortress Balance Sheet Meets Cyclical Recovery
Updated 8 Oct 2025
Fortescue trades at A$19.84 versus fair value A$26.47 (33% upside), with 2.4x EV/EBITDA at 41% discount to peers despite industry-leading C1 costs US$17.99/wmt and 0.14x net debt-to-EBITDA.
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flt
FLT: Travel Giant - Transformation Takes Flight
Updated 8 Oct 2025
BUY rating with $17.07 fair value vs $12.38 current price. Strong Australian market position, successful operational transformation, 38% upside potential over 18-24 months.
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