Ryan Lim

PXA: Digital Settlement Monopoly - Regulatory Reckoning Looms

Fair value $6.00 vs current $15.53 (-61%). Australian monopoly faces IPART repricing (2H26), interoperability risk (40% probability 2nd operator FY27-28), and UK execution binary (viability threshold 2+ lenders by FY26).

NAB: Big 4 Banking - Overvalued at the Peak

Fair value $25.50 vs current $43.67 (-41.6%). Mature banking franchise at cost of equity equilibrium offering 7.2% yield (10-11% franked) with limited capital appreciation. ROE 11.4% declining to 10.5% terminal as competitive intensity constrains returns.

SDF: Insurance Broker Aggregator - Premium Cycle's Bottoming, Network's Compounding

Australia's #1 insurance broker aggregator (16% share, 402 members) trades 8% below $6.56 fair value despite fortress financials (18.7% ROIC, 127% FCF conversion). Premium cycle trough (1-2% pricing) normalises FY27-28 driving $125m revenue per 1% uplift.

Sell-off has commenced.

WBC Analysis: Westpac FY2025 Full Year Results

SORRY - WBC/RMD had a bit of a mess-up today, as I integrated the comparison analysis (period on period). As you can see more clearly from this version. It's not just a "everything's the same, no changes made". And I forgot to untick

RMD Analysis: ResMed Q1 FY26 Earnings Release

NOTE: Should be over-valued vs our $155 valuation. We have used the incorrect share price (referencing CDI instead of NYSE) which i will attend to shortly. Event: ResMed Q1 FY26 Earnings Release | Date: 2025-10-30 | Source: ResMed Investor Relations Q1 Revenue Climbs 9% with Gross Margin Expansion ResMed released its Q1

RMD: Sleep Health Pioneer - Margin Peak Before the Mean Reversion

Healthcare technology leader with 28.5% market share and 94.3% device connectivity. Fair value $187.65 vs current $128 (47% upside). EBITDA margins peak 37.5% FY26 before compression to 30.7% terminal. Medicare risk 85% probability. Quality score 7.6/10.

WBC: Banking Giant - Transformation Troubles, Trough Credit Masking Reality

Westpac trades 40% above $23.71 fair value despite operational deterioration. Cost-to-income rising to 53% (vs CBA's 43%) whilst UNITE delivers zero efficiency gains. Credit at unsustainable 5bps trough. Expected returns -11.2% annually. Avoid.

AMZN: Cloud Giant - AI Bet's a $120B Gambit

Amazon trades at USD $173 vs fair value USD $88 (-49% overvalued). AWS 37% margins face hyperscaler compression, USD $120B AI capex unproven. Terminal value 65.8% creates asymmetric risk. Bear case -77%.

CGF: Retirement Income Leader - Peak Margins, Fading Moat

AVOID. Fair value $8.38 vs current $9.16 (-9% downside). Challenger dominates 60% annuity share with 67.7% EBITDA margins, but faces compression to 58% as banks enter FY27. ROIC 12.5% declining to 10.0% vs 14.0% WACC. Quality 7.33/10, wide moat narrowing 6-8 years.

CGF Analysis: APRA Releases Response on Longevity Product Capital Reforms

Website updates will occur through tonight. In the meantime, please refer to this email for CGF's updates. Paid members, you can also go through directly to company page "https://www.alphainsights.com.au/research/cgf/". A culling of non-paying membership will happen across the weekend. With

Alpha Insights - Portfolio Strategy (Part 2)

This is a continuation from my previous email - Alpha Insights: Portfolio Strategy. I have laid out my thought process, how/why I make my decisions, and when am I doing what. This would be relevant for use, only now I would say, so please don't take this