AUB
AUB: Insurance Broker - Lloyd's Access Before the Cycle Turns
Updated 14 Nov 2025
BUY rating. Fair value $46.10 vs current $32.71 (38.5% upside). EBITDA margins 34.7% (770bps above peers). Lloyd's access via Tysers creates 8-10yr moat. Risks: hard market cycle reversal (35% probability, 12-18mo), digital disruption ($8.5bn InsurTech funding), ROIC 8.2% below WACC 9.37%.
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