Market leader (18% share, 900+ locations) trading $2.23 vs fair value $4.28 (92% upside). EBITDA margins 12.7% targeting 13.5-14.1% recovery through $20m cost savings. HOLD - suitable for aggressive value investors accepting elevated execution risk.
View noteSpeculative BUY. Fair value $0.439 vs current $0.14 (+214% return). FY25: 34% EBITDA growth on 6% revenue (5.7x leverage), 91% cash conversion. 45% AU/60% NZ skydiving share, regulatory moats. Risks: 72.6% terminal dependency, climate volatility, tourism recovery uncertainty.
View noteMarket leader trading 25% below fair value ($1.01 vs $0.79) with 67% ROIC, $112m net cash fortress, and HLO bid floor at $0.90. Strategic plan execution risk balanced by exceptional operational efficiency and asymmetric 4.2x reward-to-risk ratio.
View noteFair value $3.06 vs current $5.25 (31% overvalued). Revenue growth 27.7% FY26 decelerating to 2.5% terminal. EBITDA margins compressing from 14.4% to 10.0% as 740bps industry premium proves unsustainable. WorkPac integration (40% failure risk) critical catalyst.
View noteFair value $2.08 vs current $3.28 (58% premium). Exceptional growth (92% revenue, 84% ROIC) fully priced. Competitive response within 18-24 months (75% probability) will compress margins from 9.0% to 7.5%. Expected return 8.5% annually with symmetric risk (1.28:1 ratio).
View noteFair Value $1.15 (NZD) vs market ~$0.88 implies +31% upside. EBITDAFI inflection to 3.1% (FY25) targeting 12% by FY29-30 via operating leverage. B4B partnership (60% revenue) through 2029 provides growth visibility but creates renewal risk. Quality 5.65/10, narrow moat.
View noteElders (ELD) trades at $6.97 vs fair value $2.56 (172% premium). Delta acquisition ($475m) tests management at 4-5x scale. EBITDA margin 4.7%, targeting 4.6% peak before 4.2% terminal compression. Bear case 25% probability.
View noteFair value $6.48 vs current $5.35 (21% upside). Recently profitable SaaS (96% retention, 81% gross margin) at M&A integration inflection. 65% Base case: 20.9% EBITDA peak FY26. 35% Bear/Severe: integration delays compress to 13-14%. 2.4:1 upside/downside asymmetry.
View noteFair value $2.69 vs current $1.22 (89% upside). Technology platform drives 23.9% cost-to-income ratio vs peers 60%+. ROIC 32.5% with NAB partnership scaling. Credit normalization from 94bps to 130bps key risk. 2-3 year horizon.
View noteXero (XRO) trades $154.79 vs fair value $132.25 (14.6% premium). Quality SaaS (94% recurring, 1.09% churn, Rule of 40: 44.5%) with binary Melio risk. 30% integration failure probability, UK MTD catalyst Apr 2026. Attractive <$125, overvalued current.
View noteLife360 trades at $49.49 vs fair value $94.84 (+92% upside). Category leader with 65% share, 20% EBITDA margins, 34% revenue growth. International expansion and advertising platform drive 41% CAGR. Risk: Apple/Google competition (35% probability).
View noteFair value $9.73 vs current $12.79 (24% downside). Regional bank mid-transformation with 5.9% revenue CAGR, ROE improving 7.34%→9.45% by FY30. Up platform (1.2m customers, +55.2 NPS) provides growth optionality. 4.9% yield, 50% transformation execution risk.
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