Ryan Lim

CGS: Digital Cognitive Testing - Premium's a Pipe Dream, Reality's a Reckoning

AVOID at $2.51 (210% premium to $0.81 fair value). Niche CRO specialist with 30% margins faces competitive encroachment, FY26 -18% revenue decline, and execution risks. Attractive only below $0.80.

ALD: Fuel & Convenience Giant - Premium Pricing, Transition Timing

Ampol trades at $31.62 vs $27.23 fair value (16% premium). Australia's only integrated refiner with 27% market share faces energy transition pressures. ROIC 5.8% trails WACC 8.85%. EG acquisition targeting $65-80m synergies. 25% EV adoption by 2030 creates 7-10 year adaptation window.

Economic Intelligence Report: Australian Market Outlook Update - December 2025

Testing out a new thing here. Hope it is of some use. Very much still a proto-type. Will leave this open to the public for a bit :) Try and drum up some more interest in Alpha Insights. Let me know if you found this useful! Thinking about doing this on

BAP: Aftermarket Leader - Transformation's Tougher Than Expected

Market leader (18% share, 900+ locations) trading $2.23 vs fair value $4.28 (92% upside). EBITDA margins 12.7% targeting 13.5-14.1% recovery through $20m cost savings. HOLD - suitable for aggressive value investors accepting elevated execution risk.

BAP Analysis: Bapcor December 2025 Guidance Update

Event: Bapcor December 2025 Guidance Update | Date: 2025-12-09 | Source: ASX Announcement Share Price Plunges 20% on Weak First-Half Trading Update Bapcor released a trading update on December 9, 2025, warning of weaker-than-expected performance in the first half of FY26, driven by trading softness in October and November. The company now

EXP: Adventure Tourism Leader - Recovery Play with Operating Leverage Inflection

Speculative BUY. Fair value $0.439 vs current $0.14 (+214% return). FY25: 34% EBITDA growth on 6% revenue (5.7x leverage), 91% cash conversion. 45% AU/60% NZ skydiving share, regulatory moats. Risks: 72.6% terminal dependency, climate volatility, tourism recovery uncertainty.

PMV Analysis: FY25 AGM and Trading Update

Event: FY25 AGM and Trading Update | Date: 2025-12-05 | Source: Premier Investments ASX Announcement Soft Guidance Reflects Persistent Consumer Pressures Premier Investments released its FY25 AGM update on 5 December 2025, providing a trading snapshot and first-half FY26 guidance amid challenging retail conditions. The company expects Premier Retail's underlying

PMV: Premium Lifestyle Retailer - UK Expansion's Make-or-Break Moment

Fair value $17.47 vs current $17.26. Industry-leading 39% EBITDA margins with 31.4% ROIC. UK expansion (3 stores to 32-35 target) provides $5.75/share strategic optionality. Consumer bifurcation: Peter Alexander +6.6%, Smiggle -14.5%.

DISREGARD THE EXP report that was just emailed. That was a human-error on my part.

1 December 2025

Short Hiatus - Will return in December

TBN: Gas Developer - Beetaloo or Bust, Capital's Running Out

HOLD rating. Fair value $1.32 vs current $0.19 (86% discount). Pre-revenue Beetaloo gas developer with 5-6 month capital runway vs 10-month timeline. ROIC 7-14% < WACC 14% = value destruction. 60% probability M&A exit to Santos/Woodside represents primary value path.